UBS on Wednesday moved BioNTech SE to a "buy" rating from "neutral," increasing its 12-month price objective to $135 from $117. The bank said it has growing confidence in BioNTech’s lead oncology program and in a wider drug class that UBS views as emerging to play a next-generation role in treating solid tumors. Shares were trading at $92.25 as of May 26, implying roughly 47% upside to the newly set target.
The upgrade centers on pumitamig (BNT327), a PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibody. UBS analyst David Dai labeled pumitamig "a credible best-in-class contender" within its category and raised the firm’s probability assumptions for the asset across multiple indications.
UBS now applies a 60% probability of success for pumitamig across first-line extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, non-small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer indications, a material step up from the market-implied 20% to 30% range. For colorectal cancer, UBS assigns a 50% probability of success compared with a market-implied 20%.
Following positive Phase 2 results and revised trial timelines, UBS sharply increased its risk-adjusted peak sales forecast for pumitamig in first-line extensive-stage small cell lung cancer to $690 million by 2033, up from a prior estimate of $200 million.
UBS referenced Phase 2 data from the ROSETTA Lung-01 trial showing that pumitamig plus chemotherapy produced a confirmed overall response rate of 76% and a median progression-free survival of 6.8 months in first-line extensive-stage small cell lung cancer. UBS contrasted those figures with the reported outcomes for PD-L1 agents in their respective Phase 3 settings, citing atezolizumab at 60% response rate and 5.2 months progression-free survival, and durvalumab at 68% response rate and 5.1 months progression-free survival.
A key near-term event flagged by UBS is the HARMONi-6 overall survival readout from Akeso/Summit Therapeutics, expected to be released at ASCO on May 31. UBS estimates a 62% chance that ivonescimab plus chemotherapy will achieve a statistically significant overall survival hazard ratio below 0.72 in first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer, an outcome the firm says would reduce the class-level risk for related agents.
UBS also increased its probabilities for other BioNTech oncology assets. Gotistobart (BNT316), an anti-CTLA-4 antibody being evaluated in second-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer, now carries a 70% probability of success in UBS’s view, up from 25%. The bank’s risk-adjusted peak sales estimate for gotistobart is $610 million by 2031. UBS highlighted interim data showing an approximate 12-month overall survival rate of 63% with gotistobart versus 30% with docetaxel, and an overall survival hazard ratio of 0.46 versus docetaxel.
T-Pam (BNT323), a HER2 antibody-drug conjugate with a planned 2026 BLA filing in second-line HER2-expressing endometrial cancer, benefits from FDA Breakthrough Therapy and Fast Track designations. UBS raised its success probability for this indication to 80% from 65% and assigns risk-adjusted peak sales of $130 million by 2031.
UBS’s valuation framework uses a 2.2 times EV/2032 peak sales multiple paired with a discounted cash flow sensitivity employing a 10% discount rate and 0% terminal growth. That methodology yields an enterprise value estimate of 13.22 billion. The bank estimates BioNTech will hold net cash of 5.66 billion in 2026.
On the revenue and profitability outlook, UBS projects total revenue of 2.10 billion for 2026, down from 2.87 billion in 2025, before a recovery to 4.44 billion by 2030. The brokerage anticipates a return to profitability in 2030, with net earnings of 398 million.
In summary, UBS attributes its upgrade to stronger conviction in pumitamig as a leading asset in a potentially transformative drug class and to improved odds across multiple clinical programs, which collectively underpin the higher price target and the revised financial trajectory.
Key near-term catalyst: HARMONi-6 overall survival data at ASCO on May 31, which UBS says could de-risk the class if positive.
Market reaction noted by UBS: The new rating and target reflect UBS’s judgment that the market has underappreciated BioNTech’s shift toward a multi-asset oncology platform with sizable upside potential.