TD Cowen has revised upward its 2030 outlook for global sales of GLP-1 class therapies to $150 billion, reflecting a rise from an earlier $139 billion projection. The updated forecast encompasses treatments for both Type 2 diabetes and obesity.
The investment firm now anticipates roughly 59 million patients will be on a GLP-1 therapy by 2030, compared with its prior forecast of 46 million. TD Cowen noted that expected price reductions across treatments should be offset by larger treatment volumes, creating a balance between margin pressures and expanded patient uptake.
Within the market mix, TD Cowen sees oral weight-loss medications gaining share. The firm projects these oral formulations will represent 14% of global GLP-1 sales by 2030, an increase from its earlier estimate of 11%.
In terms of company-level share, TD Cowen projects that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will retain leadership positions in the GLP-1 market. The firm assigns Eli Lilly a projected value share of 62% and Novo Nordisk a projected value share of 31% by 2030.
Context and implications
The raised sales and patient-count forecasts reflect TD Cowen's view that broader adoption and the emergence of oral formulations will materially influence market structure through 2030. The firm explicitly ties revenue dynamics to both price movement and volume growth, stating price reductions should be balanced by higher treatment volumes.
TD Cowen's projection for company value shares positions Eli Lilly as the largest beneficiary in dollar terms, followed by Novo Nordisk. The firm’s outlook underscores concentrated value distribution within the GLP-1 category over the forecast horizon.
Methodological note
The updated figures reported here reflect TD Cowen's internal forecasting and market-share estimates. The firm’s view covers the combined markets for Type 2 diabetes and obesity treatments using GLP-1 mechanisms and incorporates anticipated shifts in product form factors and pricing dynamics.