S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday revised its outlook for Titan International Inc. (NYSE:TWI) to negative from stable, while upholding the companys 'B' issuer credit rating. The agency said the change stems from persistent headwinds in the agricultural equipment market that are expected to cap improvements in earnings and cash flow even as other business segments recover.
Leverage and cash flow expectations
S&P said it anticipates Titans adjusted debt to EBITDA will stay elevated in the 5.5x-6.0x range and forecast only limited adjusted free operating cash flow generation in 2026. The ratings firm also confirmed its 'B' issue-level rating for Titans senior secured notes due 2028, leaving the recovery rating at '4'. The negative outlook signals the potential for a downgrade if adjusted leverage remains above 6x and the agricultural end market does not materially improve.
Agriculture segment under strain
Titans Agriculture segment, which represents roughly 40% of company revenue, is described by S&P as being close to the trough of a multi-year cyclical downturn. The ratings agency pointed to constrained demand from original equipment manufacturers, the result of weak farmer economics and cautious buying behavior. S&P expects agricultural volumes to stay pressured through 2026 as flat U.S. farm incomes, elevated interest rates, and tight credit conditions continue to discourage purchases of large equipment.
The agency added that higher diesel and fertilizer costs - which it linked in part to geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions - will further erode farm profitability and could offset any support from government assistance programs.
Offsetting strength in earthmoving and construction
Not all of Titans businesses are expected to underperform. S&P said the companys Earthmoving/Construction segment should perform well, helped by high commodity prices that support mining volumes and continued expansion in infrastructure and data center construction, including large-scale projects and AI-related demand.
On margins, S&P projects Titans adjusted EBITDA margin to be broadly flat at about 6.7% in 2026, with a modest expansion to about 7.1% in 2027. That margin path is forecast to allow Titan to modestly deleverage to the mid-5x area over the next two years from about 6.0x in 2025.
Liquidity and upcoming maturities
As of March 31, 2026, Titan held about $160 million of accessible cash and had roughly $50 million of availability under its $225 million asset-based lending facility, which matures in February 2029. The company also faces the April 2028 maturity of about $400 million of secured notes. S&P noted that the approaching note maturity could cause the ABL facility to spring to a 90-day term before the notes come due.
Given these dynamics, S&Ps outlook revision underscores the ratings agencys view that ongoing weakness in the agricultural end market is the primary risk to Titans credit metrics, even as other end markets show resilience.
Summary
S&P changed Titan Internationals outlook to negative while keeping the issuer and issue-level ratings at 'B'. The agency expects elevated adjusted leverage, limited free cash flow in 2026, and continued pressure in the Agriculture segment through 2026, offset by stronger performance in Earthmoving/Construction and gradual margin improvement in 2027.