S&P Global Ratings has changed its outlook on Northrop Grumman Corp. to positive from stable while reaffirming the firm's BBB+ long-term issuer credit rating. The ratings agency also confirmed an A-2 short-term issuer credit rating and BBB+ issue-level ratings on Northrop Grumman's unsecured debt.
S&P cited expectations that the company will keep leverage below 2.5x and sustain funds from operations (FFO) to debt at around the mid-30% level as reasons for the outlook improvement. The agency expects Northrop Grumman's credit ratios to strengthen over the next 12 to 24 months despite an increase in capital spending.
Specifically, S&P projects that Northrop Grumman's debt to EBITDA will remain under 2.5x and that FFO to debt will fall within a 35% to 40% range over the coming two years. Those targets underpin the ratings firm's positive view, reflecting an expectation of continued cash flow generation driven by defense demand.
The ratings report highlights broad policy support for defense budgets amid elevated global security risks and active conflicts. S&P points to the White House's 2027 budget proposal, which includes an almost $1.5 trillion request for defense spending - approximately a 44% increase over 2026 - as a tailwind for demand across defense contractors.
S&P noted that Northrop Grumman's program portfolio - including work in space systems, missiles and missile defense, advanced computing, and secure communications technologies - is well aligned with current U.S. strategic priorities. That program alignment is a central element of the agency's assessment of the company's near-term revenue and cash flow prospects.
Operationally, Northrop Grumman has reached agreement with the U.S. Air Force to accelerate production of the B-21 bomber. The company expects to invest an additional $2.5 billion in expanding manufacturing capacity over the next few years, with the bulk of that spending occurring in 2027 and 2028. The arrangement anticipates further government investment in the supply chain to support the capacity expansion.
The ratings action also reflects recent shifts in shareholder return policy across the sector. Following a January 2026 executive order from the administration criticizing defense firms for prioritizing buybacks and high dividends, defense contractors including Northrop Grumman have largely halted repurchases. S&P expects Northrop Grumman will likely avoid share buybacks for at least the remainder of this year while continuing to pay dividends.
Analytical note: The outlook move to positive signals S&P's view that, assuming the company meets its projected leverage and FFO metrics, Northrop Grumman's credit profile could further strengthen. The affirmation of existing ratings indicates the agency sees current credit quality as consistent with the BBB+ level while positioning the firm to potentially receive an upgrade if anticipated improvements materialize.