Overview
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Century Aluminum Co.'s issuer credit rating to 'B' from 'B-' and raised the issue-level rating on the company's senior secured debt to 'B+' from 'B', while preserving a recovery rating of '2'. The ratings agency attributed the move to stronger credit metrics and said it expects Century's debt-to-EBITDA ratio could be pushed below 2x in fiscal 2026 and beyond.
Financial trends and forecasts
S&P noted Century reduced its debt-to-EBITDA to 2.6x at the end of fiscal 2025, down from 3.4x a year earlier. The ratings firm tied the improvement to higher earnings driven by elevated aluminum prices and regional premiums. In that context, S&P revised its aluminum price assumptions to $3,300 per metric tonne for 2026, $3,000 for 2027 and $2,800 for 2028 - increases from prior assumptions of $2,700, $2,800 and $2,800 per metric tonne for those years.
Based on these assumptions and anticipated volume improvements, S&P expects Century to generate adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $800 million in fiscal 2026. The ratings firm also signaled that the company could produce record earnings and free operating cash flow over the next 12 months, which would bolster its credit cushion and help fund debt reduction and organic project spending.
Operational developments
Operationally, Century took several steps in early 2026 that factor into S&P's assessment. In April 2026 the company began restarting about 90 pots at its Mount Holly facility that had remained idled since 2015. That effort was enabled in part by an extension of a power supply contract with Santee Cooper to 2031.
Also in April 2026, Century restarted production at the second potline at the Norðurál facility in Grundartangi, Iceland, and the company expects to ramp that plant to full capacity by the end of July 2026. These restarts are central to S&P's view of improving volumes and earnings in the coming fiscal year.
Policy and market backdrop
S&P highlighted shifts in trade policy and tax incentives that contribute to the U.S. operating environment for primary aluminum producers. Government measures currently incentivize domestic production through higher tariffs on steel and aluminum under section 232 and through section 45X tax credits, which allow domestic primary aluminum producers to claim 10% of qualifying production costs as tax credits.
The Platts assessment of the U.S. Midwest premium reached a record 118 cents per pound in May 2026, according to the ratings discussion, a level that represents roughly a 500% increase versus the roughly 16 to 20 cents per pound range seen during 2024. S&P noted the tariff increases - which rose to 50% in 2025 - account for a material portion of the stronger all-in price environment and lower U.S. production costs. Century derives about 60% of its revenue from the U.S., making those domestic dynamics particularly relevant to its outlook.
Growth projects and capital allocation
In February 2026 Century and Emirates Global Aluminum announced a 60/40 joint venture to build the first new aluminum smelter in the U.S. in more than four decades. S&P noted that construction could begin by the end of this year if the joint venture secures a favorable long-term power supply agreement. The ratings firm also expects Century will more than double its free operating cash flow generation in the current fiscal year, which would support both declared debt-reduction objectives and organic project investments.
Implications
S&P's upgrade reflects a combination of stronger leverage metrics, higher commodity price assumptions and operational restarts that together underpin expectations for significantly improved EBITDA and cash flow in fiscal 2026. The company's ability to convert the anticipated earnings into sustained lower leverage and to execute planned projects will be key to maintaining the positive outlook.
Data points cited in this article correspond to S&P Global Ratings' published expectations and Century Aluminum Co.'s operational statements as outlined above.