Software stocks have rebounded materially from earlier losses as market participants reassess how artificial intelligence will affect the industry. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has climbed nearly 42% from its April low, a recovery that flipped fears of AI-driven obsolescence into hopes that software companies can harness AI to expand demand and alter pricing dynamics.
Despite the rebound, the sector remains below breakeven for the year: the software ETF is down under 2% for 2026 after an earlier drop of about 30%.
Investors are increasingly inclined toward companies that appear able to integrate AI into products and to move to usage-based pricing rather than relying solely on legacy subscription models tied to headcount. Market participants highlighted a group of names they see as positioned to capture AI-related growth, including security firms Datadog and Palo Alto Networks, chip design software developer Synopsys, and larger software and cloud incumbents Oracle and Microsoft.
“While AI is causing massive disruption, it is remapping the industry rather than destroying it,” said Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust in Atlanta, articulating a view that the technology is reorganizing opportunity within the sector rather than eliminating it.
After the months-long selloff earlier this year, some investors judged that the market had become overly pessimistic and began reexamining beaten-down shares, even as the broader technology complex - including chip stocks - rallied on hopes for an AI-driven expansion. That rotation intensified when robust quarterly results and forward guidance from Snowflake and MongoDB helped lift sentiment across software names.
Thomas Blakey, managing director of software equity research at Cantor, said company results are showing clear links between AI activity and software demand, noting that the data indicate “software companies will be beneficiaries of AI.” He also cautioned on investor positioning: “We always advise being selective,” and he argued that market participants had previously priced in a scenario that was excessively negative regarding AI.
Market optimism received another boost following comments from Jensen Huang, CEO of AI-chip leader Nvidia, at the Computex conference in Taipei. Huang suggested that AI agents would expand software demand because the “world is no longer limited by the number of people, therefore those agents are going to use more tools than ever.” He added, “This is actually an incredible time to be a software company.” Those remarks coincided with a further lift in software shares.
That said, volatility remains a feature of the sector. The software ETF fell 2.8% on Tuesday, demonstrating how quickly sentiment can reverse. A notable drag that day was Salesforce, which pulled back 4.2% after a 9.7% advance on Monday amid investor excitement about its role as a major investor in and user of Anthropic, which has filed for a market debut.
Looking ahead, market professionals emphasize selecting the right companies for a longer-term hold rather than treating the bounce as a uniform sector recovery. Jonathan Cofsky, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, pointed to Datadog as a preferred exposure because of its usage-based pricing model and demand from data centers that power AI workloads. Datadog reached a record high on Monday and has nearly doubled in value year-to-date, a run that included a single-day 31% surge after the company raised its annual financial targets on strong demand for security tools attributable to AI.
Doug Rogers, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, cited Palo Alto Networks for its attractive positioning in cybersecurity. Although some firewall revenue correlates with client user counts under legacy pricing structures, Rogers said rising security threats should enable Palo Alto to capture higher pricing for protection. Palo Alto dipped on Tuesday but had reached a record high on Monday and is still up more than 61% for the year.
Marc Dizard, chief investment officer at Huntington National Bank, prefers Oracle, arguing that the company’s large installed customer base gives it time to transition toward a pricing model that captures AI-related demand. Oracle’s shares are showing a gain of more than 25% for 2026 after recovering from a roughly 30% loss earlier in the year.
Microsoft remains a widely cited, lower-risk option despite being down nearly 9% for 2026 after an intra-period decline of up to 26%. Analysts point to Microsoft’s AI assistant Copilot and its cloud unit Azure as avenues to monetize AI adoption. Doug Rogers said these assets create “a lot of opportunity,” and Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, described Microsoft as more than a survivor given its scale: “Given its size and breadth it’s more than a survivor. It’ll always be in the game.”
Other market signals are mixed. Cantor’s Blakey maintains overweight ratings on several stocks while stressing selectivity. Snowflake and MongoDB’s positive results helped spark the rally, but the sector’s sensitivity to earnings, guidance and public remarks by industry leaders means investors should expect continued swings.
Market data and selected ticker moves referenced in market coverage:
- MSFT -4.17%
- ORCL -1.44%
- CRM -4.18%
- SNPS +3.26%
- PANW -1.1%
- IGV -2.76%
- MDB -1.34%
- DDOG -3.01%
- SNOW -6.79%
The near-term path for software equities will likely continue to hinge on company results, management guidance on AI-driven demand and whether firms can successfully migrate customers to new pricing models. For investors, the message from analysts and portfolio managers is to be selective and focus on firms with structural advantages in capturing AI-related spending.