May 28 - Chinese market operators are developing the framework for a futures market linked to AI tokens, according to people with knowledge of the matter, marking a different approach from U.S. exchanges that are moving to offer futures tied directly to GPU compute rentals.
Sources said the Shanghai Futures Exchange has begun initial research into contract design for so-called token futures. These tokens measure the smallest unit of information processed by AI models and are used to price AI services. The work is at an early, preliminary stage and, according to one source, has been motivated in part by the technology competition between China and the United States.
The prospective Chinese product would be distinct from initiatives underway at major U.S. venues. In the United States, the CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are preparing to launch GPU compute futures - derivatives linked to the cost of renting the computing power used to train and run AI models. By contrast, the Shanghai exchange's contemplated product would reference AI tokens rather than raw compute rental rates.
All of these derivative offerings are intended to provide a hedging mechanism for corporate users and other participants across the AI supply chain who want to manage exposure to the rising expense of compute resources. Participants would include data-centre operators, providers of AI services and firms that consume compute at scale.
It is not yet possible to say when token futures might be formally introduced, and plans remain subject to change, another source cautioned. The timeline for seeking any necessary regulatory approvals has not been disclosed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission did not respond to requests for comment.
Context and market signals
Chinese authorities and market participants have been accelerating efforts to establish a spot market and related price discovery for computing power, supported by data-centre operators and major AI model users. Tokens, which quantify compute consumption, have been described by industry figures as the raw material or "digital fuel" that powers modern AI systems. Xiao Feng, Chairman and CEO of HashKey Group, used that phrasing to explain the token concept and its role in pricing AI services.
Official data cited in industry commentary show a rapid surge in token usage in China - a roughly 1,000-fold increase since the start of 2024 to more than 140 trillion tokens per day by the end of March. That steep rise has been noted by market participants as supporting the case for derivative instruments that can help firms manage volatility and plan capital allocation.
BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink has also highlighted the potential for tokens to form the basis of a new asset class, saying at a recent conference that surging token demand could lead to futures tied to compute.
Supply constraints and policy suggestions
Shortages of computing capacity have already affected some Chinese AI models, forcing operators to ration user access. The issue of constrained compute availability has added urgency to proposals for financial tools that smooth price discovery and allocation.
In March, Zhang Yunquan, a computing technology researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed the launch of compute futures to China's parliament, according to official media reports. Separately, in December an official commodity index company in China published indices tracking the country's compute supply, which could be used as underlying benchmarks for futures contracts.
Academic voices have argued for swift action. Yilei Shao, dean of the Shanghai AI-Finance School at East China Normal University, said token futures should be launched sooner rather than later, characterising the derivative as central to the technological and financial competition between China and the United States. She said, "The United States and China are the only two nations capable of mass-producing artificial intelligence," and added, "The maxim 'Whoever masters AI, rules the world' is hardly an exaggeration."
Timing and outlook
Market participants differ on how quickly China might roll out related products. A recent research note from brokerage Baocheng Futures indicated an expectation that China could debut compute futures within a three- to five-year window, while noting that fragmentation in the current market poses an obstacle. Exact launch dates, contract specifications and regulatory paths remain undecided and open to revision.
For now, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's token-futures work is in an exploratory phase. If advanced, the contracts would create a new asset class linked to AI consumption metrics and offer firms additional tools to manage costs and operational planning across data-centre, semiconductor and AI service sectors.