Morgan Stanley said that Quanta Services (TPE:2382) expects notebook shipments to be flat to slightly higher quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, and that the company's full-year outlook for notebook volumes remains a decline in the high single digits to double digits year-over-year.
Quanta is forecasting AI server sales to rise by double digits quarter-over-quarter in Q2. The firm also outlined product-timing expectations for the rest of the year: GB300 shipments are anticipated to hold steady in Q3 without sharp declines, while Q4 is likely to become a transition window as shipments move from the GB300 platform to the VR200 platform.
Looking further ahead, Quanta reported that AI server unit sales doubled on a year-over-year basis in 2025 and that they are projected to expand in triple digits year-over-year in 2026. Guidance for its broader server business calls for double-digit year-over-year growth in 2026, with unit volumes likewise expected to increase.
Notebooks accounted for less than 15% of Quanta's revenue mix in the first quarter, and the company expects that proportion to remain under 20% for the full year.
On capacity and capital spending, Quanta plans to double its AI server capacity by the end of 2026 versus the end of 2025, with the bulk of that expansion located in Thailand and the United States. Capital expenditure guidance for the period stands at NT$30 billion.
Shipments of the VR200 rack are expected to be limited in 2026. Quanta indicated that sampling shipments for the VR200 are likely to commence in the third quarter, with the majority of VR200 shipments slated to occur in 2027.
Quanta also noted a shift in commercial arrangements with some customers: a portion are willing to accept a consignment model. The arrangement aims to ease original design manufacturers' capital expenditure expansion and working capital pressure, and to reduce the risk of supply constraints and roadmap delays that can arise from longer investment cycles.
The company also commented on a vendor interaction: NVIDIA is seeking to standardize computing trays for the Rubin platform, but Quanta expressed uncertainty about whether cloud service provider customers will accept that standardization. The company suggested that if NVIDIA presses tray standardization and customers do not adopt it, NVIDIA could risk ceding share to the ASIC segment.
These operating details outline a year of managed notebook exposure, accelerating AI server demand, and a staged product transition, all against a backdrop of targeted capacity expansion and NT$30 billion in planned capital spending.
Summary
Quanta expects modest notebook trends in Q2 and unchanged full-year notebook guidance. AI server shipments are set to grow quarter-over-quarter in Q2, with AI server volumes having doubled in 2025 and projected to increase in triple digits in 2026. The company plans to double AI server capacity by the end of 2026, with capex guidance of NT$30 billion. VR200 racks will see limited shipments in 2026, with sampling likely in Q3 and most shipments in 2027. Some customers are open to a consignment model to manage ODM capex and working capital strain. Quanta raised concerns about potential customer uptake of NVIDIA's standardized computing trays and the attendant competitive risk for NVIDIA.