Piper Sandler adjusted its stance on Deckers Outdoor Corporation, moving the stock to a Neutral rating from Underweight, noting that a recent pullback in the price has produced a more balanced risk-reward profile ahead of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for May 21. The brokerage increased its price target to $100 from $95 - a level the analysts describe as implying only modest upside from the stock’s recent close of $93.56.
The firm said the shares now trade at roughly 13 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings, a multiple Piper views as reasonable given expectations for improved investor sentiment and the upside the brokerage sees in upcoming results. Piper Sandler projects Deckers will outpace consensus in the fiscal fourth quarter, forecasting earnings per share of about $1.00 versus Street estimates of $0.83. On the top line, the firm models revenue growth of approximately 8%, ahead of the company’s own guidance of near 5% and above consensus estimates of about 6%.
Analysts at Piper pointed to stronger direct-to-consumer (DTC) performance across Deckers’ core brands, UGG and HOKA, as a central driver of their more optimistic near-term view. The brokerage cited easier year-ago comparisons and less promotional activity as supporting factors for DTC strength. For HOKA specifically, Piper anticipates roughly 20% DTC sales growth, supported by momentum in refreshed franchise models including Speedgoat 7 and Gaviota 6.
That said, the firm retained a guarded outlook on the larger sneaker category. Piper warned that lifestyle running trends appear to be moderating amid intensifying competition, and highlighted that HOKA remains concentrated in a popular max-cushioning segment without meaningful diversification beyond that core offering. Within the global athletic footwear universe, the brokerage said it continues to favor On Holding AG, reiterating an Overweight rating and a $50 price target on that name.
Looking further ahead, Piper Sandler expects Deckers’ fiscal 2027 sales guidance to be broadly in line with Street forecasts of roughly 7% growth. Within that framework, the analysts forecast HOKA to achieve low- to mid-teen percentage growth while UGG is expected to grow in the low- to mid-single digits. The report also underscored Deckers’ financial flexibility, noting that the company holds more than $2 billion in cash and still has $1.7 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization.
The upgrade and attendant projections reflect Piper Sandler’s view that the recent valuation reset and improving DTC dynamics create potential for an earnings surprise in the upcoming quarter, while the firm continues to weigh category-level headwinds and HOKA’s product concentration when forming its broader industry preference.