Options pricing compiled by Bloomberg suggests Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) faces an implied share-price move of about 12% when it reports earnings on May 27 after the market close. That figure reflects market expectations derived from options contracts ahead of the company’s scheduled release.
A review of Snowflake’s eight most recent earnings announcements shows an inconsistent relationship between the options market’s implied moves and the actual stock reactions. In three of those eight reports, the stock’s movement exceeded what options implied it would do.
Specifically, on August 27, 2025, Snowflake shares climbed 25.1% against an implied move of 11.3%. On May 21, 2025, shares rose 12.2%, compared with an expected move of 10.5%. And on November 20, 2024, the stock jumped 36.6% versus an implied move of 12%.
In the remaining five instances, the real-world share-price changes were smaller than the options market had suggested. The company’s most recent earnings release on February 25 resulted in a 2.3% decline in the share price, while the options market had priced in an 11% move. On December 3, 2025, the stock fell 6.2% compared with an expected move of 9.9%.
Context and interpretation
The options-implied move provides a single metric summarizing market consensus on potential volatility around an earnings event. Snowflake’s recent history shows that the implied move can underestimate actual volatility at times and overestimate it at others. For investors and options traders, that inconsistency highlights the uncertainty surrounding the company’s quarterly results and the market’s reaction.
Key considerations
- Implied move ahead of May 27 earnings: approximately 12% as priced by options.
- Mixed historical outcomes: three of the last eight earnings reports produced moves larger than implied; five produced smaller moves.
- Examples of outsized reactions include August 27, 2025 (+25.1% vs 11.3% implied) and November 20, 2024 (+36.6% vs 12% implied).
Investor note
Market participants should be aware that implied moves are an estimate built from options prices and do not guarantee a particular outcome. Snowflake’s past earnings have produced both significant upside surprises and muted reactions relative to expectations, creating a range of outcomes for traders and shareholders alike.