Options pricing compiled by Bloomberg indicates investors are pricing in an approximate 9.7% move in DocuSign Inc. (NASDAQ: DOCU) around its upcoming earnings report. The company is expected to disclose results on June 4 after the market close.
Looking back over the eight most recent earnings events, the relationship between options-implied moves and the stock's actual reactions has been inconsistent. In three of those eight reports, the stock's actual price change after the announcement exceeded the magnitude implied by options.
The historical implied versus actual moves for DocuSign's last eight earnings releases are as follows:
- March 17, 2026 - Implied move: 10.6%; Actual change: 0.4%.
- December 4, 2025 - Implied move: 10.9%; Actual change: -4.6%.
- September 4, 2025 - Implied move: 11.2%; Actual change: 6.9%.
- June 5, 2025 - Implied move: 10.3%; Actual change: -12.3%.
- March 13, 2025 - Implied move: 4.6%; Actual change: 4.1%.
- December 5, 2024 - Implied move: 5.7%; Actual change: 33.1%.
- September 5, 2024 - Implied move: 8.8%; Actual change: 2.7%.
- June 6, 2024 - Implied move: 9.6%; Actual change: -11.0%.
Those records show instances where implied volatility overstated the subsequent price swing and other instances where the stock moved more sharply than options markets anticipated. For example, the December 5, 2024 release saw an implied move of 5.7% while the stock jumped 33.1%, whereas on March 17, 2026 the implied move was 10.6% and the actual change was a modest 0.4%.
Investors and market participants tracking DocuSign around the June 4 earnings release will see the options market's 9.7% implied move as an estimate of expected volatility, but past comparisons underline variability between implied and realized price changes.
Contextual note - The company is scheduled to report after the market closes on June 4. The options-implied figure cited comes from Bloomberg's compilation of options data.