Oppenheimer said in a research note that SpaceX’s Starlink has the potential to reshape the U.S. communications landscape, which the firm pegs at $1.6 trillion. The brokerage increased its projection for total space-related revenue in 2035 to $800 billion, up from an earlier $500 billion estimate, citing Starlink’s expansion as a key driver.
The upgrade arrives as SpaceX readies an initial public offering this month. The company is scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 and, according to reporting, is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation in the IPO.
Oppenheimer identified incumbent broadband providers as among the most exposed to competitive pressure. The note said Starlink’s growth is likely to add strain to cable companies that are already experiencing subscriber losses. It also singled out major wireless carriers - AT&T, Verizon Communications and T-Mobile - as firms that could see subscriber counts and revenue decline more quickly as the satellite service expands.
The brokerage articulated a view that Starlink could become embedded in numerous critical applications. In that scenario, Oppenheimer expects the service to reduce customer churn and to acquire greater pricing power over time as it entrenches itself in those use cases.
As part of its modeling adjustments, Oppenheimer raised its estimate for U.S. Starlink subscribers in 2030 to 15 million, up from a prior forecast of 10 million. The firm also suggested that SpaceX’s ambitions extend beyond connectivity, potentially addressing parts of the roughly half-a-trillion-dollar handset market by developing alternatives to smartphones.
Starlink currently underpins a substantial component of SpaceX’s valuation, the note observed, pointing to the service’s subscriber base of more than 10 million users and a launch business that analysts and investors have credited with transforming access to orbit.
Oppenheimer framed the company’s potential impact in sweeping terms, saying that should SpaceX execute on its objectives, it could achieve a level of control over space-based infrastructure and commerce unlike that of typical corporations - a comparison the brokerage likened to a modern-day East India Company in scope.
The research note highlights a mix of commercial opportunity and competitive disruption as SpaceX advances toward its public listing and continues to scale Starlink.