Stock Markets May 20, 2026 04:26 PM

Nvidia Lifts Guidance, Commits $80 Billion Buyback and Raises Dividend as AI Spending Surges

Company forecasts Q2 revenue well above estimates and increases cash return amid growing competition for inference chips

By Jordan Park INTC MSFT GOOGL AMZN NVDA

Nvidia projected second-quarter revenue that exceeds Wall Street forecasts and announced an $80 billion share repurchase program while raising its quarterly cash dividend. The company cited continued strength in AI infrastructure demand even as large cloud providers invest heavily in both Nvidia processors and their own custom inference chips, and rivals press into the inference market.

Nvidia Lifts Guidance, Commits $80 Billion Buyback and Raises Dividend as AI Spending Surges
INTC MSFT GOOGL AMZN NVDA

Key Points

  • Nvidia forecast second-quarter revenue of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, ahead of the $86.84 billion estimate compiled by LSEG.
  • The company announced an $80 billion share repurchase program and raised its quarterly cash dividend from 1 cent to 25 cents.
  • Rising AI infrastructure spending from large U.S. tech firms supports demand for chips, but those firms are also developing custom inference processors, increasing competition for Nvidia; Intel and AMD are also targeting the inference market.

Nvidia on Wednesday issued a second-quarter revenue forecast that outpaces analyst expectations and unveiled a substantial stock repurchase plan, moves that underline the firm's central role in the expanding market for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker expects revenue of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, versus consensus estimates of $86.84 billion, according to LSEG data. Alongside the revenue outlook, Nvidia announced an $80 billion share buyback program and said it would increase its quarterly cash dividend from 1 cent per share to 25 cents per share. Shares traded lower in extended hours, falling by more than 2% after the announcements.

Investors and industry participants view Nvidia's results and guidance as a measure of the AI market's overall health since the company's accelerators and related processors are employed across a wide range of data centers and are central to running many of the largest and most advanced AI models. The company is commonly described in market coverage as the world’s most valuable company.

Spending on AI infrastructure continues to climb rapidly. The article notes that several major U.S. technology firms - including Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft - are expected to spend more than $700 billion on AI this year, a notable increase from around $400 billion in 2025. Those large cloud and internet companies are significant buyers of Nvidia hardware, but they have also been investing in bespoke processors intended to run AI models.

That internal chip development effort targets inferencing - the step where models generate responses to user queries - which the article highlights as a much larger market than training. The push to build custom inference silicon represents a potential challenge to Nvidia's long-standing leadership in the chip industry, since it could reduce the pace or volume of purchases of Nvidia's expensive processors.

Nvidia faces competition on multiple fronts. Big technology firms are developing their own alternatives, and established chipmakers such as Intel and Advanced Micro Devices have highlighted the substantial revenue opportunities presented by the inference market. In response to competitive pressure, Nvidia has taken steps to shore up its position; the company rolled out a new central processor and an AI system in March that incorporate technology from Groq, a startup focused on inference chips.

The set of announcements - above-consensus revenue guidance, a large buyback program and a marked dividend increase - underline Nvidia's strategy to return capital to shareholders while maintaining a leadership position in AI compute. Market reaction in after-hours trading was mutedly negative despite those moves, reflecting investor judgment that the company still faces meaningful competition and uncertainty in the shift toward inference-focused hardware.


Sectors impacted: semiconductor manufacturing, data centers, cloud services, and AI infrastructure vendors.

Risks

  • Development of custom inference chips by major cloud and internet companies could reduce future demand for Nvidia processors - this impacts the semiconductor and cloud services sectors.
  • Competition from established chipmakers such as Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, which are promoting opportunities in the inference market, introduces uncertainty for Nvidia's market share - this affects chip manufacturers and data center hardware suppliers.
  • Despite strong guidance and capital returns, Nvidia's stock fell more than 2% in after-hours trading, indicating investor concern about near-term issues and competitive pressures - this creates volatility risk for investors in technology and AI-related equities.

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