Morningstar analysts published a valuation of SpaceX at $780 billion, a figure that is less than half the $1.75 trillion price tag the company has set for its initial public offering. The assessment surfaced just days before SpaceX's IPO roadshow, which is slated to begin on June 4, and ahead of a Nasdaq debut scheduled for June 12.
The research team highlighted doubts about the business case for SpaceX's artificial intelligence projects, which encompass xAI and the social media platform X. Morningstar described the economics of that segment as unclear and pointed to competitive pressure from other AI firms.
"We don't see Grok as one of the leading AI labs today," said Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens, referring to the chatbot developed by xAI. Owens cautioned that the AI ambitions rest in part on technologies that have not yet been proven, including concepts such as orbital data centers.
Starlink, the company's satellite broadband arm, was also described as facing technological obstacles, many of which the analysts said may fall outside SpaceX's direct control. Those technical challenges factored into Morningstar's lower valuation of the enterprise.
Owens added that the company has been priced substantially above what Morningstar believes is justified. "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO," he said.
Despite the lower fair-value estimate, Morningstar acknowledged conditions that could lift the stock in the near term. The firm cited a low free float and the involvement of a strong syndicate of underwriters as drivers that may push the share price up immediately following the offering. The list of lead underwriters includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan.
"Long-term investors eager to participate in SpaceX's future endeavors and potential success will have opportunities to do so with a greater margin of safety than the initial offering is likely to provide," Owens said.
Separately, secondary trading on Forge Global last put the company's valuation at $1.53 trillion. The company is moving forward with its IPO timetable: roadshow launch June 4 and a Nasdaq listing on June 12.