Shares of Carrefour climbed 1.4% on Monday following Morgan Stanley's initiation of coverage on the French supermarket group with an Overweight rating and a price target of c20.10. That target implies roughly 22% upside versus Friday's close of c16.44.
Analyst Izabel Dobreva wrote that Carrefour has "meaningfully de-risked" over the past year, pointing to what she described as faster-than-expected execution by management on a broad restructuring. Her note flags three core pillars to that work: a commercial reset in France, a streamlined European footprint and clearer free cash flow (FCF) visibility.
Morgan Stanley projects an 11% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share through 2028 and anticipates a free cash flow yield of around 14%. The bank also highlighted the shares' valuation, noting the stock is trading at about 7.5 times 2028 earnings, which the analyst estimates is roughly a 40% discount to peer multiples.
"Carrefour's FCF yield is almost 2x higher than its 2028e P/E - the market is undervaluing the new strategic plan," Dobreva wrote, framing the upgrade as driven by prospective cash generation relative to the current share price.
Operational developments in France
The note points to improving volume market share trends in France, running near 20 basis points ahead year-on-year, which Morgan Stanley links to a refreshed pricing offensive and a strategic pivot toward fresh foods. The bank documented a series of price reductions across hundreds of products implemented in successive waves, the launch of a new loyalty programme and a partnership with the Blach e8re Group to install specialist fruit and vegetable concessions in Carrefour's hypermarkets.
On margin prospects, Morgan Stanley expects around 60 basis points of cumulative margin expansion in France over three years, an implication of the commercial reset and renewed focus on store standards and pricing discipline.
European repositioning
Dobreva welcomed Carrefour's decision to exit Italy and Romania, describing both markets as loss-making operations that the group has moved to divest. The bank said capital is being refocused toward Spain, identified as Carrefour's most profitable European market. The analyst also flagged unconfirmed reports that Poland could be next in line for disposal and described such a move as a potential additional catalyst for the stock.
"We see a much more disciplined and confident Carrefour when it comes to pricing and store standards, with the Fresh strategy tapping into the right consumption mega-trends," Dobreva added.
Brazil refinancing and near-term headwinds
Turning to Carrefour's Brazilian business, Morgan Stanley acknowledged near-term pressures from high interest rates and weak consumer spending. The analyst said refinancing local debt should materially help the group: roughly c1.5 billion of real-denominated borrowings carrying about a 13% yield are being replaced with euro debt at around 3%, which Morgan Stanley estimates should provide an annual benefit of approximately c100 million to net income and free cash flow from 2026 onward.
Valuation and investor takeaways
The bank's financials underpin its positive stance: an 11% EPS CAGR through 2028, a free cash flow yield near 14% and a current multiple on 2028 earnings of about 7.5x. Dobreva framed Carrefour's current market valuation as failing to fully reflect the strategic plan and the prospective cash flow upside.
"We think in the current environment, idiosyncratic alpha is hard to find and we have appetite for a restructuring story," she concluded, summarising Morgan Stanley's rationale for initiating coverage with an Overweight rating.
For market participants, the upgrade and commentary reinforce areas to monitor: execution of the French commercial reset, progress on disposals and the timing and impact of Brazilian refinancing benefits beginning in 2026.