Five months after U.S. forces entered a war with Iran, a new national poll conducted over six days and concluding on Monday finds that Americans are far likelier to believe the conflict will make the Middle East more chaotic than more stable over the coming year.
Half of those surveyed said they expect U.S. military action in Iran to destabilize the Middle East in the next 12 months, roughly three times the 17% who predicted the war would lead to greater stability. Another 16% said they thought the situation would remain about the same, while 17% were unsure or did not answer.
Perceptions of the conflict and its costs
The poll results come as the president publicly stepped back from threatened "massive attacks" on Iran, an indication of the uncertainty surrounding a war that its backers initially said might deliver swift results. The conflict, launched with Israel in late February, has already imposed a measurable human and financial toll: U.S. taxpayers have spent at least $37.5 billion, 18 U.S. service members have been killed and the fighting has killed thousands of Iranians, according to the figures reported in the poll's context.
Public approval for the war is limited. Just 35% of Americans said they approve of the conflict. In party-specific polling, Republicans remain broadly supportive of the president overall; 80% of Republicans approve of his performance as president and 66% approve of his handling of Iran. But even among Republicans, fewer than half - 41% - believe that the war will produce better stability in the Middle East over the next year.
Economic anxieties tied to energy and shipping
Americans also expressed pessimism about fuel costs, a central economic concern linked to the conflict. Some 58% of respondents said they expected gasoline prices to get worse, while just 15% thought prices would improve. Those worries are rooted in disruptions to key maritime routes: Iran has choked off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments, and Iran-backed forces and proxies have targeted commercial shipping in other chokepoints.
The war has included Iranian missile and drone strikes against neighboring countries and commercial vessels, and has helped spark new fighting in Lebanon, which has eased in intensity since a U.S.-brokered truce. Houthi forces in Yemen, backed by Iran, have also threatened Saudi shipping transiting the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
Political implications at home
Pollsters noted the political risks the conflict poses for the president and his party as they defend narrow congressional majorities in the upcoming midterm elections. Registered voters in the survey slightly favored Democrats over Republicans when asked which party has the better approach to handling war and terrorism - 37% to 36% - the first time Democrats led on that question since the pollster began asking it in December 2024, when Republicans held a 39% to 28% advantage. The poll also indicated that voters now view Democrats as better able to manage the economy for the first time in about a decade.
Commenting on the war's political dimension, Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said: "This war was unpopular the day it started, and it’s gotten more unpopular since." Logan added that the president faces a difficult tradeoff in aiming to degrade Iran's missile capabilities and prevent any future nuclear weapons program while trying to limit U.S. casualties and avoid mounting political costs. "That incoherence, or rudderlessness, in the conduct of the war is causing more problems for the president," Logan said.
Debate over Iran's capabilities
Voices aligned with the administration's earlier positions argue that U.S. and allied strikes have substantially degraded Iran's military and proxy networks. David Schenker, who served as the State Department's top Middle East official during the president’s first term and is now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, cautioned that economic effects could linger even if large-scale fighting ended quickly. But he suggested it is not a foregone conclusion the region will be more unstable, saying: "I don’t think there’s an understanding of the nature of the degradation of Iran’s capabilities, which is significant."
Concerns about other global flashpoints
The survey found broad worry that other ongoing conflicts could worsen and that new wars might erupt. Some 58% of respondents said they were concerned the Russia-Ukraine war could deteriorate further over the next few years. Fifty-five percent said they feared China could engage in conflict with Taiwan, and 48% were concerned a war might break out between Russia and a European country other than Ukraine. The poll also recorded that 37% of respondents worried the United States could go to war over Greenland.
Methodology
The online poll gathered responses from 4,505 U.S. adults nationwide and concluded after six days of surveying, with a reported margin of error of 2 percentage points.
The results highlight a public that sees the current conflict as more likely to produce disorder in the Middle East than a stabilizing effect, coupled with significant economic anxieties over fuel costs and broader unease about the global security outlook.