Morgan Stanley has raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to €1,660 from €1,400 while retaining an overweight recommendation, citing the Dutch lithography equipment maker’s remarks at its April annual general meeting as support for a more confident view of near-term EUV shipment capacity.
The broker increased its shipment forecast for 2027 to 90 EUV tools, up from the "80-plus" capacity level management outlined at ASML’s first-quarter earnings release. For fiscal 2028, Morgan Stanley now models total EUV tool shipments of 104 tool sets, explicitly broken down into 96 low numerical aperture tools and 8 high numerical aperture tools.
In its research note the firm said capacity-related concerns may be masking ASML’s earnings power, leaving that profitability underappreciated by the market. The analysts' updated views come alongside a notable stock performance this year: ASML shares had risen 41% year-to-date versus an 80% gain for the SOXX semiconductor index as of June 1, 2026, when ASML shares closed at €1,394.
At the April AGM, ASML disclosed plans to expand into the Brainport Industries Campus in Eindhoven, with construction slated to begin in the third quarter of 2026, according to Morgan Stanley’s note. The bank said that for the campus to meaningfully reduce capacity pressure, the initial project will need to be followed by a multi-phase build-out.
The revised price target is derived from applying a 32 times price-to-earnings multiple to Morgan Stanley’s fiscal year 2028 earnings per share estimate of €51.92. That EPS projection implies a compound annual growth rate of 29% from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2028. Morgan Stanley also nudged its P/E multiple up from 31 times to 32 times, which it still characterizes as being at the lower end of its cycle-peak valuation range of 30 to 35 times.
The broker’s top-line and operating-profit projections were raised as well. Morgan Stanley expects ASML revenue of €37.67 billion in fiscal 2026, €48.72 billion in fiscal 2027, and €53.40 billion in fiscal 2028, up from €32.67 billion in fiscal 2025. Corresponding EBIT forecasts are €13.69 billion, €20.40 billion, and €22.34 billion for fiscal 2026 through 2028, compared with €11.34 billion in fiscal 2025.
Morgan Stanley highlighted long-term agreements (LTAs) signed by major memory manufacturers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron as evidence of a structural shift in cycle dynamics. The bank said LTAs can stabilise customer demand and reduce the likelihood that memory companies will overbuild capacity. Morgan Stanley noted that these LTAs "may yet translate into order intake, for 2028 delivery, soon."
The note included scenario analyses to illustrate valuation sensitivity. Under a bull case, Morgan Stanley set a scenario price of €2,000 based on roughly 40 times fiscal 2027 estimated EPS of about €50, assuming a rapid recovery at leading-edge logic foundries and limited disruption from tariffs and export controls. The bear case was set at €400, based on roughly 20 times fiscal 2027 estimated EPS of approximately €20, assuming an equipment market downturn.
Consensus analyst metrics cited in the note show a range of price targets from €795 to €1,900, with 81% of analysts holding an overweight rating, 14% equal-weight, and 6% underweight. Morgan Stanley’s own fiscal 2027 forecasts for revenue (€48.72 billion), EBIT (€20.40 billion), and EPS (€46.71) sit above the consensus figures of €47.42 billion, €18.77 billion, and €41.99 respectively.
What this means
Morgan Stanley’s adjustment reflects both a higher shipment trajectory for EUV systems and an increased willingness to value ASML at a higher cycle multiple, while still positioning that multiple at the lower end of the firm’s defined cycle-peak range. The bank’s estimates assume demand stabilisation in part driven by LTAs in the memory sector and incremental expansion of capacity facilities as signalled at the AGM.