Stock Markets May 28, 2026 02:54 PM

Morgan Stanley Keeps MediaTek at Top of Picks, Cites Strength in Cloud-to-Edge AI Chips

Analyst house highlights MediaTek’s ASIC design traction for cloud AI and sees multi-year revenue runway through 2030

By Marcus Reed

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed MediaTek as its top pick after takeaways from the Taiwan AI Summit 2026. The bank pointed to MediaTek’s cloud AI ASIC design services, edge AI prospects, a secured 2nm ASIC project likely to be TPU v9, and potential revenue contributions from a TPU v10 IceFish program in 2029-2030. Management reiterated plans to avoid ASIC commoditization, signaled margin resilience for cloud AI ASICs, and disclosed ongoing bids and customer engagements including Google and hopes to add another cloud customer by end-2026.

Morgan Stanley Keeps MediaTek at Top of Picks, Cites Strength in Cloud-to-Edge AI Chips

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley kept MediaTek as its top pick after the Taiwan AI Summit 2026, citing strength in cloud AI ASIC design services and edge AI prospects - impacts semiconductors and cloud infrastructure sectors.
  • MediaTek secured a 2nm ASIC project expected to be TPU v9 and is bidding on the next-generation design; Morgan Stanley anticipates revenue from a potential TPU v10 IceFish in 2029-2030 - impacts chip design and data center compute markets.
  • Management aims to avoid ASIC commoditization by differentiating with technology and values, expects cloud AI ASIC margins to stay above the corporate average, and plans to pursue PC, server CPU, smartphone and automotive opportunities.

Morgan Stanley has retained MediaTek as its preferred stock pick, citing the chipmaker’s advances in cloud AI application-specific integrated circuit - ASIC - design services and its positioning for edge AI workloads. The brokerage published its observations after attending the Taiwan AI Summit 2026, where MediaTek executives laid out the company’s cloud-to-edge AI semiconductor strategy.

On May 25, 2026 MediaTek co-COO and CFO David Ku said the company intends to resist ASIC commoditization driven by customer-owned tooling trends by focusing on adding customer value and differentiating through technology. Management also indicated that cloud AI ASIC operating margin can remain above the corporate average, signaling confidence in profitability for those designs.

Executives clarified MediaTek’s system integration role for the Google TPU program, noting that the company’s contribution relies on chiplet and interconnect technology rather than rack-level systems or networking design. The firm reported it has secured a 2nm ASIC project that is expected to be TPU v9, and that it is bidding for the next-generation assignment.

Morgan Stanley projects multi-year growth through 2030 tied to expected revenue contributions from what the bank believes will be TPU v10 IceFish in 2029 and 2030. MediaTek management said the company has received several requests for quotation from cloud service providers and hopes to add one more customer in addition to Google by the end of 2026.

Regarding agentic AI compute, MediaTek plans to engage in PC and server CPU opportunities either through merchant channels or by providing ASIC design services. The company emphasized that major ASIC designs are not strictly limited to either training or inference use cases, and Morgan Stanley interprets this as a potential volume upside for MediaTek’s TPU v8 and v9 programs relative to Street consensus.

Management emphasized that anticipated AI-driven revenue is incremental to the firm’s smartphone business, which it expects to continue growing alongside edge compute capabilities. The company did not dismiss the possibility that AI service providers could approach MediaTek about future AI-capable phones, noting MediaTek’s turnkey capability. Executives also identified potential growth opportunities in the automotive sector.


Sectors and market notes

  • Semiconductor design and foundry-related revenue from cloud AI ASICs could lift MediaTek’s contribution to cloud infrastructure spending.
  • Smartphone and automotive markets could see complementary growth from edge AI integration tied to MediaTek’s platforms.

The company’s strategic focus as described at the summit - preserving ASIC margins, pursuing advanced-node ASIC programs, broadening cloud customer engagement, and targeting PC, server, smartphone and automotive segments - underpinned Morgan Stanley’s continued preference for the stock.

Risks

  • Customer concentration and dependency risk: MediaTek currently counts Google as a cloud customer and hopes to add one more customer by end-2026, indicating uncertainty in expanding its cloud customer base - impacts cloud service providers and semiconductor revenue concentration.
  • Bid and program award uncertainty: MediaTek is bidding for the next-generation ASIC project after securing a 2nm TPU v9 program, so outcomes of those bids will determine future revenue trajectories - impacts chip design and data center compute markets.
  • Commoditization pressure remains a concern: Management highlighted the risk of ASIC commoditization tied to customer-owned tooling trends and emphasized the need to add differentiation to preserve margins - impacts semiconductor pricing and margin dynamics.

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