Stock Markets June 4, 2026 09:23 AM

Morgan Stanley Forum Highlights Multiple Growth Levers for India’s Auto Industry

Executives point to domestic resilience, export momentum, EV ramp-up and defense work as growth engines into FY27

By Marcus Reed BFRG

Senior executives from major Indian automakers and component makers told investors at Morgan Stanley’s India Investment Forum 2026 that the sector remains on a steady expansion trajectory. Management commentary emphasized strong domestic demand, rising export opportunities, accelerating electric vehicle uptake and growing defense-related businesses as the principal growth drivers for FY27, even as commodity inflation and fuel costs present headwinds.

Morgan Stanley Forum Highlights Multiple Growth Levers for India’s Auto Industry
BFRG

Key Points

  • Executives across OEMs and suppliers cited resilient domestic demand and expanding export opportunities as central growth drivers into FY27.
  • Electric vehicle adoption and related capacity expansions are recurring strategic priorities, with specific capacity and product targets disclosed.
  • Defense, power solutions and aerospace-related work are material contributors to growth for some component makers, supporting revenue diversification.

Company leaders speaking at Morgan Stanley’s India Investment Forum 2026 portrayed the country’s auto industry as resilient, identifying a range of growth drivers as they look toward FY27. While several executives flagged inflationary pressure on raw materials and elevated diesel prices as cost risks, the consensus view was that demand dynamics, new product pipelines and non-traditional revenue streams will support continued expansion.

Domestic commercial vehicle demand and aftermarket strength - Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland described commercial vehicle demand as steady, with dealer networks continuing to report volume increases. Management noted that although commodity-driven price increases and higher diesel costs remain areas to monitor, the company is seeing structural growth in its spare-parts franchise. The firm attributes this aftermarket strength to a shift in servicing toward licensed workshops following BS6 implementation. Leadership also said its defense and power-solutions units are delivering strong performance, and that exports are gaining traction across SAARC and African markets.

Volume guidance and product cadence - Hyundai Motor India

Hyundai Motor India reiterated its FY27 volume-growth guidance of 8-10% and said domestic demand appears robust. The company acknowledged that supply disruptions have impacted exports to the Middle East, but emphasized that end-market demand remains intact. Hyundai confirmed plans for 26 launches and refreshes by FY30, including a planned new midsize SUV and a compact electric SUV slated for next year. The automaker reiterated margin guidance of 11-14%.

Two-wheeler expansion, exports and EV capacity - TVS Motor

TVS Motor struck a cautiously optimistic tone, projecting high single-digit growth for the industry and targeting outperformance via scooters, premium motorcycles and electric vehicles. Management reported continued export momentum despite logistics challenges and said the company is expanding electric-vehicle capacity toward 50,000 units per month. TVS expects commodity inflation of 3-5%, but management believes that premiumization, operational cost efficiencies and selective price increases will help protect margins.

Exports, launches and EV share - Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto put near-term industry growth at 7-9%, driven by demand for higher-displacement motorcycles. The company highlighted robust export demand across Latin America and Asia and confirmed that electric vehicles now account for more than 20% of domestic revenue. Management acknowledged commodity inflation as a headwind but said pricing actions have partially offset higher input costs. Bajaj also pointed to a strong launch pipeline across its Pulsar, KTM and Triumph brands.

Defense, aerospace and power components - Bharat Forge

Bharat Forge presented one of the most bullish outlooks among forum participants, forecasting defense revenue growth of more than 40% in FY27 as current orders are executed and new artillery programs come online. The company is expanding aerospace manufacturing capabilities and is seeing demand for data-center power-generation components. Management expects a stronger U.S. commercial-vehicle cycle and rising passenger-vehicle exports will underpin growth in its core automotive business.


The views shared at the forum reflect a mix of product-led growth, geographic diversification through exports, and the monetization of adjacent businesses such as defense, aerospace and power solutions. Across the companies, electric-vehicle rollouts and capacity expansions are recurring themes, alongside efforts to manage margin pressure from commodity inflation through pricing, premiumization and cost efficiencies.

Risks

  • Commodity inflation and higher diesel prices are cited as ongoing cost pressures that could compress margins - impacting manufacturers and component suppliers.
  • Supply disruptions have affected exports in some channels, notably Hyundai’s shipments to the Middle East, and logistics challenges remain a constraint for exporters.
  • Rising input costs may force price actions; while pricing has offset some cost increases, sustained commodity inflation could limit the effectiveness of this strategy and affect consumer demand in price-sensitive segments.

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