Morgan Stanley feedback from the Asia AI Summit 2026 indicates GDS Holdings Ltd anticipates mid-single-digit organic EBITDA growth for the 2026-27 period, with material near-term pressure arising from the renewal of legacy contracts and related markdowns. The brokerage estimates these renewal effects will shave off around 4-5 percentage points of EBITDA growth, concentrated across a five-quarter window spanning 2Q26 through 2Q27.
The company expects a turning point in 3Q27, when deliveries tied to large orders begin to come online. Morgan Stanley frames scenarios for 2028 performance that hinge on the scale of bookings secured in 2026: if the company records 500MW of bookings in 2026, EBITDA growth in 2028 could reach the mid- to high-teens. If bookings reach 800MW in 2026, the brokerage suggests EBITDA growth could climb into the mid-20s in 2028.
Pricing dynamics described to Morgan Stanley show a wide range depending on project location and vintage. New projects located in more remote areas are being priced at Rmb2.2-2.3 million per MW under the assumption of ex-power monthly service revenue of Rmb250 per month. By contrast, new projects in tier 1 markets are being priced at Rmb2.8-3 million per MW, on the assumption of Rmb300 per month in monthly service revenue.
Legacy assets approaching renewal are being offered at a markedly higher level on initial renewal, with pricing indicated at Rmb5 million per MW. Morgan Stanley notes these legacy renewal prices decline at roughly 10% year-over-year before settling at a long-term level in the vicinity of Rmb3.5-3.7 million per MW.
Delivery timing has also shifted. GDS has extended delivery cycles to about 12 months, attributed to a move toward using greenfield resources rather than drawing from inventory. The company expects delivery timelines to normalize to a six- to nine-month range starting in 2027 as portions of outer shell construction are completed.
The combination of renewal-driven markdowns, variable pricing by geography and project vintage, and lengthened delivery cycles frame the near-term outlook described to Morgan Stanley. The company views the mid-2027 timeframe as the inflection point when booking-driven delivery flows could lift growth beyond the mid-single-digit range observed in 2026-27.
Additional context provided to Morgan Stanley:
- Headwinds from legacy contract renewals and markdowns total about 4-5 percentage points across 2Q26-2Q27.
- Potential for mid- to high-teens EBITDA growth in 2028 if 500MW of bookings are secured in 2026; potential for mid-20s growth in 2028 if 800MW of bookings are secured in 2026.
- Pricing: remote new projects Rmb2.2-2.3 million per MW at Rmb250/month ex-power; tier 1 new projects Rmb2.8-3 million per MW at Rmb300/month.
- Legacy renewal pricing starts at Rmb5 million per MW, declines about 10% year-over-year, then stabilizes around Rmb3.5-3.7 million per MW.
- Delivery cycles extended to 12 months due to reliance on greenfield resources; expected to shorten to six-nine months from 2027 as outer shell construction progresses.