Market moves
Most Middle Eastern equity markets that were trading on Sunday closed with gains, driven by renewed optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran understanding. Benchmark indexes in Egypt, Jordan and Qatar advanced, with broad-based strength recorded across the headline and wider measures in those markets.
Below are the recorded moves in Gulf and regional indexes on Sunday:
- Egypt - EGX 30 +1.5%, EGX 70 +1.3%, EGX 30 Capped +1%, EGX35 Lv Index +1.2%.
- Jordan - Amman SE General +1.6%, Amman SE AllShare +2.2%.
- Qatar - QE General +3.2%, QE All Shares +3.1%.
Political developments cited by markets
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that a memorandum of understanding had been "largely negotiated." He also indicated he had told U.S. negotiators "not to rush into a deal" and that both sides "must take their time and get it right." In a post on Truth Social, he wrote: "If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet."
Reports outlining elements of the understanding
Media coverage on Saturday and Sunday provided additional detail on aspects of the reported understanding. Reuters cited a senior Iranian official saying that Tehran had not agreed to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium outside the country, and that nuclear-related issues were excluded from the preliminary understanding reached with Washington.
Axios reported, citing a U.S. official, that the agreement would extend the current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and allow Iran to resume unrestricted oil exports. According to that report, the strait would remain open during the 60 days and vessels would be allowed to transit the waterway without tolls. Iran would also remove mines it previously deployed in the strait to restore normal shipping traffic. In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and grant sanctions waivers that would allow Tehran to sell oil on international markets.
Statements from Tehran and regional reactions
Iranian state media on Sunday quoted President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying: "We are ready to assure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons, Iran is not looking for unrest in the region."
Reuters also reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Trump during a Saturday phone call that Israel would remain free to act against threats in Lebanon in discussions about the agreement between Washington and Tehran, the wire service said, citing an Israeli source.
Context for markets
The market reaction on Sunday reflected investor attention to the potential macro and sectoral consequences identified in the reports - most notably changes to shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of restored Iranian oil flows under a temporary framework. Those developments were cited in media accounts as components of the preliminary understanding and appear to have underpinned the day’s gains in regional benchmarks.
Note: Reporting here reflects statements, quotations and media reports published on Saturday and Sunday and the market moves recorded on the same trading day. Details described as reported by media outlets were not characterized here as final agreement terms.