Macquarie's latest assessment of the U.S. light-vehicle market finds it stabilizing at about a 16 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), driven in part by a surge in hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) sales that is improving margins for Asian automakers.
In May the SAAR reached 16.2 million units, a 3% increase year-over-year and a 1% rise month-over-month. That reading is slightly under Macquarie's earlier 2026 projection of a 16.4 million unit SAAR for light vehicle sales.
On a unit basis, U.S. light-vehicle deliveries totaled 1.48 million in May. That result was flat compared with the same month a year earlier and represented a 7% gain from April, according to the report. Macquarie noted that demand held up even as broader consumer sentiment remained weak and fuel prices stayed elevated.
Hybrids have seen the most marked adoption. HEV penetration climbed to an all-time high of 17.3% in May, a rise the firm linked to new model introductions. Manufacturer-level data in the report showed Hyundai-Kia combined HEV sales jumping 126% year-over-year. Toyota's HEV volume grew 10% year-over-year and Honda's rose 22%, with Macquarie attributing Toyota's comparatively lower pace to production being shifted toward new models.
By contrast, battery electric vehicle (BEV) share in the U.S. market settled at 6% in May, down from a peak of 11.6% in September 2025. The report flagged notable weakness in BEV volumes: overall BEV sales were down 18% year-over-year. Tesla, which the report said accounts for 47% of BEV sales in the United States, registered a 12% decline in deliveries year-over-year.
Macquarie pointed to rising battery costs as a headwind for BEV profitability and sales. The analysts connected higher battery prices to increased demand from the energy storage systems market, noting that automakers have responded by raising vehicle prices, which in turn has dented BEV competitiveness.
On pricing and incentives, the report cited JD Power data showing average incentive spending rose 6% year-over-year and 3% month-over-month to $3,502 per unit, equivalent to 8% of the average transaction price. The average transaction price was $46,023, a 1% increase year-over-year and effectively flat month-over-month.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects the U.S. SAAR to remain close to the 16 million level for the next four to five years. The firm identified Kia and Toyota as its top stock picks based on margin upside from expanding HEV lineups in 2026, with Hyundai listed as a secondary pick for similar margin benefits.
Context note: The report emphasizes production shifts, model launches and pricing dynamics as drivers of the current mix between HEVs and BEVs, and highlights how battery cost dynamics linked to energy storage demand are influencing automaker profitability and consumer pricing.