Macquarie's regional review of electric vehicle sales through the first five months of 2026 reveals a split market: BEV volumes are down sharply in the United States, modestly lower in China, and markedly higher across Europe.
Headline regional totals
On a five-month basis, Macquarie reports BEV sales fell 25% in the US, dropped 9% in China, and increased 36% in Europe.
United States - May snapshot and trajectory
In May, US BEV deliveries reached 86,000 units, a decline of 18% year-over-year. Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) sales rose to 256,000 units in the same month, up 33% from the prior year, pushing HEV penetration to a record high of 17%. By contrast, BEV share in the US remained at 6%, down from 12% in September 2025.
Macquarie links this shift in part to the expiration of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies. Plug-in vehicle share in the US held flat at 7% in May.
Tesla, which represents 47% of US BEV sales, experienced a 12% year-over-year decline in volumes.
China - May performance and penetration
China's May BEV sales totaled 637,000 units, up 4% year-over-year and 10% month-over-month. Total plug-in vehicle sales in China reached 950,000 units in May, which marked an 8% year-over-year decline but a 12% increase compared with April. Plug-in penetration in China hit a record 63% in May.
Europe - robust gains and market composition
Europe recorded 181,000 BEV sales in May, a 44% increase versus the same month a year earlier. Plug-in penetration across Europe reached 36%, compared with 27% a year earlier. Country-level BEV growth rates in May were notable: the UK rose 34%, France jumped 93%, and Germany increased 39%.
Macquarie's note also highlights competitive shifts in European market share: Tesla's share in April fell to 4%, while four Chinese automakers together held 9% of the European market as of that month.
Analyst positioning
Following the regional results, Macquarie maintains a positive view on Kia, Toyota, Hyundai, and CATL.
What this means
- Data through May and the first five months of 2026 point to a fragmented EV market, with policy changes, product mix and regional demand patterns producing different outcomes across major markets.
- Market share movements are visible in Europe, where Tesla's share has declined and combined share of four Chinese automakers has risen to 9% in April.
- HEV demand in the US increased in May even as BEV volumes softened, coinciding with the lapse of subsidies tied to the Inflation Reduction Act.