Business and information services stocks have begun to recover after a difficult start to 2026, with Wolfe Research naming three companies it favors as the sector moves into second-quarter earnings season. The Wolfe Business and Information Services Index rose 4% month-to-date through mid-July, outpacing the S&P 500's 1% gain, a sign investors have grown somewhat less worried about potential negative effects from artificial intelligence on the group.
In a research note, analyst Scott Wurtzel wrote that underlying data points appear stable to improving. Factors cited include debt issuance flows, the performance of equity markets and lending volumes. Wolfe interprets these trends to mean reported results across the business and information services space should generally hold up during the upcoming earnings cadence, despite the macro uncertainty that prevailed through the second quarter.
Wolfe's top selections
Wolfe Research highlighted three names it views as best positioned heading into the earnings window. Each firm received an Outperform rating from Wolfe along with a specific price target tied to upside potential versus current levels.
-
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) - Wolfe's top pick. The analyst expects MSCI to continue benefiting from momentum in recurring index subscription sales and from uptake in custom indices. Wolfe also notes that adoption by hedge funds and banks for MSCI's index products appears to be in an early stage, implying runway for growth. Rising equity markets are likely to generate upside in asset-based fee revenue, which should aid the top line. Wolfe assigns an Outperform rating and a $710 price target, which the firm says represents 16.1% upside.
In company-reported results, MSCI posted second-quarter adjusted earnings of $4.94 per share on revenue of $867 million, both figures described as slightly ahead of Wall Street estimates. Separately, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on MSCI to $700.
-
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) - Wolfe's second pick. The firm sees similar benefits for S&P Global from asset-based fees as equity markets strengthen. More particular to SPGI, Wolfe points to second-quarter debt issuance data as signaling upside to estimates, which could create room for the company to raise guidance. The analyst view is constructive, with the note observing that SPGI's prior guidance originated from a more conservative starting point and therefore may have greater potential for upward adjustment. Wolfe's Outperform rating comes with a $515 price target, implying 17.3% upside.
Following the spin-off of its Mobility business, S&P Global received several revised analyst price targets that reflect the new company structure. Among those updates was a raised target of $521 from Stifel, while other firms such as RBC Capital and Baird lowered their targets.
-
Moody's Corporation (MCO) - Wolfe is constructive on Moody's given the positive trajectory in issuance activity, which supports Moody's information and research services. The firm nevertheless views SPGI as having greater scope to lift guidance compared with Moody's. Wolfe expects likely strength in Moody's MIS segment driven by debt issuance, but it perceives less room for potential guidance raises relative to S&P Global. Moody's also carries an Outperform rating with a $550 price target, which Wolfe indicates represents 11.2% potential upside.
Moody's reported second-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings of $4.68 per share and revenue of $2.19 billion. After the quarter, Mizuho raised its price target on the stock to $530.
Market context and implications
Wolfe's note frames the sector outlook as driven by a combination of market-sensitive revenue streams and issuance activity. Asset-based fees linked to equity market performance and institutional adoption trends for index products are singled out as important drivers of near-term growth for these firms. Debt issuance trends are highlighted as a material influence on revenue for ratings and index businesses alike.
While the research is constructive, it stresses that the backdrop remained uncertain during the second quarter. Wolfe's assessment suggests analysts will be closely watching operational metrics and guidance language in second-quarter reports for evidence of sustained improvement or further downside risk.
What to watch in upcoming reports
Revenue contribution from asset-based fees as equity markets evolve.
Debt issuance volumes and their impact on ratings and market data businesses.
Adoption rates for index products among institutional customers such as hedge funds and banks.
Wolfe's rankings and price targets establish a baseline expectation for upside potential across the three names, but investors will look to company commentary and guidance adjustments to confirm whether the improving trends are durable.