JPMorgan has placed Dick’s Sporting Goods on a Positive Catalyst Watch as the retailer approaches its first-quarter 2026 earnings report, signaling that the firm sees upside potential to current market expectations.
In a research note, analyst Christopher Horvers raised his comparable-sales forecast for Dick’s core business to 4.8% from 3.4%. He also revised Foot Locker’s comparable-sales estimate to positive 1.0% from a prior projection of negative 1.4%.
The firm increased its first-quarter earnings-per-share estimate for the combined business to $3.24, up from a previous estimate of $2.90 and ahead of the Wall Street consensus of $2.87. On operating profit, JPMorgan now models $404 million for the total company versus a consensus figure of $367 million.
JPMorgan indicated that much of the modeled operating-profit upside is concentrated at Foot Locker. The bank now forecasts $40 million in operating profit for Foot Locker, compared with a consensus expectation of a $10 million loss.
Analyst rationale
Horvers described himself as optimistic about both top-line and bottom-line performance, pointing to several factors he says support the revised outlook: persistent footwear momentum; secular trends toward healthy living and casualization; a stimulated consumer; and comparatively clean inventory levels.
The note also identified the upcoming World Cup as an additional potential tailwind. For Foot Locker specifically, JPMorgan highlighted improved merchandising, a stronger mix toward so-called "heat" product, and the impact of Fast Break remodels as contributors to the firm’s view that results there could exceed expectations.
JPMorgan said its confidence in the category was reinforced by meetings with Dick’s management, including Chairman Ed Stack, and described vendors as being "fully behind fixing" Foot Locker.
Timing
Dick’s Sporting Goods is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 27.