Jefferies told clients that reported pushes in adoption schedules for certain data center architectures - specifically 800V HVDC power distribution and near-term co-packaged optics (CPO) volume - do not meaningfully alter its revenue and timeline expectations for key European semiconductor suppliers.
Media coverage has suggested hyperscalers are now targeting 800V HVDC architectures in 2028. Jefferies said this does not represent a substantial delay from its perspective, noting that most semiconductor vendors already anticipated small-volume shipments beginning in late 2027, with broader momentum expected to develop through 2028.
The firm reiterated its forecast for Infineon, maintaining that AI-related power revenues should reach at least 1.5 billion this year and grow to roughly 3 billion by fiscal year 2027. Jefferies attributes this trajectory to two trends cited in its note: a move by GPU and ASIC customers from lateral to vertical power delivery on voltage regulator modules, and growth in gigawatt-scale installations.
On the equipment side, Jefferies said it expects Aixtron to begin receiving GaN-related orders for 800V HVDC by the end of 2026 or during the first half of 2027.
Separately, reports have revised down anticipated CPO shipments in scale-out applications for 2026-2027, while indicating that scale-up shipments are expected to begin in 2029. Jefferies said those adjustments leave its timeline for CPO introduction in scale-up systems unchanged.
Regarding market impacts, Jefferies views any delay in CPO adoption as neutral or slightly positive for STMicroelectronics. While STMicro provides silicon photonics and BiCMOS components for scale-out pluggable transceivers, Jefferies expects TSMC to take on silicon photonics fabrication for CPO in both scale-out and scale-up deployments.
Industry reporting also said that Nvidia is developing a GPU tailored to 6G radio units to support beamforming and other functions for future massive MIMO radios. Jefferies characterized that development as neutral for Nokia and Ericsson, noting Nvidia had already announced entry into 6G base station hardware through a partnership with Nokia in October 2025.
Finally, the reports noted that Nokia plans to reduce its RAN chip development efforts and concentrate on software that will run on Nvidia GPUs.
Contextual takeaways - The note frames the recent schedule shifts as modest timing changes rather than a reset of market trajectories for semiconductor suppliers exposed to AI data centers and next-generation optical interconnects.