European real estate equities may be entering a phase of selective recovery after a prolonged correction, according to Jefferies' recent review of listed property companies. The brokerage argues that improving balance sheets, a reduction in refinancing stress and deeply discounted market valuations are combining to create pockets of attractive opportunity across the sector.
Jefferies notes that many publicly traded property companies are still being valued as if a significantly harsher downturn is already baked into prices - a disconnect the firm sees between current operating trends and market expectations.
Conviction picks with differentiated exposure
Within that framework, Jefferies highlights two conviction ideas that pair earnings visibility with potential for rerating: VGP and Carmila. Each occupies a different corner of the real estate landscape, offering exposure to distinct demand drivers and investor return profiles.
VGP - growth exposure in logistics
Belgium-based VGP is Jefferies' preferred growth-oriented name in the logistics sector. The brokerage underscores recent corporate actions that have strengthened the company's balance sheet - specifically a capital raise that improved leverage metrics and bolstered confidence in VGP's development pipeline.
Jefferies points to sustained long-term demand for logistics properties as a structural tailwind, supported in its view by e-commerce expansion and a trend toward supply-chain reshoring. Despite these improving fundamentals, VGP's market valuation remains well below its historic levels, leaving room for a meaningful rerating, Jefferies says, particularly if financing conditions stabilise and development activity picks up.
Carmila - value and income from retail assets
On the value and income side, Jefferies highlights French retail landlord Carmila. The brokerage contends the market is underestimating the resilience of Carmila's cash flows and notes the company trades at a steep discount to net asset value while offering one of the highest dividend yields in the European REIT universe.
Jefferies argues that Carmila's earnings visibility, defensive retail portfolio composition and disciplined capital allocation are not fully reflected in current valuations. The brokerage expects returns driven by dividends and potential upside should investor sentiment toward retail real estate recover.
Bottom line
Jefferies presents a case for selective investment in European REITs where balance-sheet repairs, reduced refinancing pressure and deep valuation discounts converge. The firm places particular emphasis on VGP for logistics-driven growth and Carmila for dividend-oriented value, while highlighting that any rerating is contingent on stabilization of financing conditions and a rebound in investor sentiment in retail assets.