Summary
Nielsen data cited by Bank of America indicate a marked pullback in cigarette and cigar volumes during the four-week period ending in mid-May, with a 14.3% decline in the UK and a 5.9% drop in Italy. While most major tobacco companies experienced volume contractions, there were differences by market and by company, including a substantial volume increase for one competitor in Italy.
Market-wide movements
Across the two markets tracked by Nielsen for that period, the UK recorded the larger decline in cigarette and cigar volumes at 14.3%, while Italy saw a 5.9% reduction. Bank of America is the source cited for these figures.
Company-level performance
- Imperial Brands - In the UK, Imperial Brands reported a 13.8% fall in cigarette and cigar volumes over the period. The UK represents roughly 6% of Imperial's revenue in tobacco and next-generation products. In contrast to its UK performance, Imperial's volumes in Italy rose 22.8%, a move that translated into an estimated gain of about 150 basis points of market share in that market.
- British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT experienced a 20.3% volume decline in the UK during the same period and is estimated to have lost approximately 50 basis points of market share there. In Italy, BAT's volumes fell 7.3%, with a roughly 30 basis point loss of share. Bank of America estimates that combined exposure to Italy and the UK will account for approximately 3% of BAT's adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in 2025, including new categories.
- Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's UK cigarette and cigar volumes decreased by 16.1%, a drop associated with an estimated share loss of about 20 basis points. In Italy, PMI's cigarette volumes fell 8.1%, with an estimated market share decline of around 100 basis points. Nielsen's EU market data cited do not include PMI's heated tobacco products.
- Japan Tobacco (JT) - Japan Tobacco's volumes fell 13.9% in the UK and declined 5.5% in Italy during the period. Despite the volume declines, JT is estimated to have gained about 15 basis points of market share in Italy.
Context on market exposure
The data show that the UK suffered the steepest short-term contraction in cigarette and cigar volumes among the two markets, and that Italy produced mixed outcomes for incumbents. The largest named companies saw varied results across the markets: Imperial Brands and Japan Tobacco posted share gains in Italy despite broader volume declines, while BAT and PMI lost share in one or both countries.
Bank of America is cited for the Nielsen-based figures and for its estimate of BAT's earnings exposure to the combined UK and Italian markets in 2025.
Methodological note
Nielsen's EU market figures referenced in the Bank of America commentary do not include PMI's heated tobacco product category, which is explicitly noted for the company.