Bank of America’s Metals & Mining conference in Miami concluded on Sunday with senior industry figures saying the outlook for miners is shifting as public authorities pay greater attention to securing critical supply chains. Delegates and company presentations stressed that the sector is confronting supply-side constraints even as demand drivers linked to data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure remain important.
Bank of America noted that the mining industry’s weighting in the MSCI All-World index remains low. While miners and copper have, in some periods, tracked the direction of semiconductor stocks, a substantial gap endures between the two sectors despite both being integral to data center build-outs and AI infrastructure.
Speakers attributed part of the present supply squeeze to reduced capital expenditure in the sector over the past decade. That pullback in investment, Bank of America said, has left a range of commodities exposed to capacity limitations. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) confirmed that governments are now looking to strengthen supply chains, including by providing support to early-stage projects that may otherwise struggle to attract market financing.
Projections for metal demand presented at the conference underscored the tension between rising consumption and constrained supply. South32 set out an expectation that copper consumption will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% between 2025 and 2035, up from 2.1% in the prior decade. Anglo American outlined a view that copper demand per unit of gross domestic product will increase as economies electrify, suggesting that Europe and the U.S. could reach roughly half of China’s current per-GDP copper intensity.
On zinc, South32 said that anticipated consumption gains would require the equivalent of three Taylor-sized projects to be developed each year for the next decade to meet demand growth. At the same time, Anglo American and Codelco reported rising capital expenditure intensities, reflecting higher spending per unit of output.
Operational pressures were also highlighted. Chile’s mining regulator Cochilco expects Chilean copper production to fall by 2.0% in 2026, citing lower ore grades, scheduled maintenance and operational constraints as drivers of the decline. Separately, the three largest copper mines have delivered roughly 660,000 tonnes fewer units since 2024, according to figures shared at the conference.
Attempts to restore output at major projects are under way but face uncertainty. Ivanhoe and First Quantum are working on restarting operations at Cobre Panama and Kamoa Kakula, though both projects are expected to return only gradually toward prior capacity and precise timelines remain uncertain.
Market dynamics for other metals also drew attention. The Iran war has removed aluminum units from the market, while Chinese smelters are running above a government-imposed capacity cap. South32 confirmed a decline in London Metal Exchange inventories, and physical premia in the United States and Europe point to tighter conditions in those regions.
Key points
- Governments are increasing focus on securing metals supply chains and may support early-stage projects that lack market funding - impacting the mining and project finance sectors.
- Copper demand is forecast to accelerate, with South32 projecting a 2.6% CAGR from 2025-2035 versus 2.1% in the prior decade; Anglo American expects copper intensity per unit of GDP to rise as economies electrify - relevant for metals, energy transition and industrial supply chains.
- Inventory declines and delivery shortfalls have been reported, including a roughly 660,000-tonne shortfall from the three largest copper mines since 2024 and lower LME inventories, indicating tightening markets in the U.S. and Europe - affecting commodity markets and downstream manufacturers.
Risks and uncertainties
- Ongoing supply constraints driven by a decade of reduced capital expenditure could limit availability across multiple commodities - a risk for industries dependent on metals inputs such as electronics and infrastructure.
- Production pressures in Chile, where Cochilco expects a 2.0% drop in copper output in 2026 due to lower ore grades, scheduled maintenance and operational constraints, represent a specific supply risk to global copper markets.
- Restart timelines for major projects such as Cobre Panama and Kamoa Kakula are uncertain, and even when restarted these assets may only ramp up gradually toward previous capacity, prolonging tightness in copper supply.
The conference presentations and company statements painted a picture of a sector confronting simultaneous demand growth and supply-side strain. Attendees said that a combination of government intervention, increased capital intensity and cautious project ramp-ups will shape how quickly markets rebalance.