Goldman Sachs raised its full-year forecast for U.S. capital expenditure (capex) growth to 7.8% from 6.5%, saying business investment is positioned for a solid year and that higher oil prices should not materially derail that trajectory.
In a research note, analyst Elsie Peng highlighted that real business fixed investment climbed at an annualized 10.4% pace in the first quarter of 2026. That represents a notable acceleration from the 5.6% pace recorded last year. Goldman also pointed to a pickup in underlying domestic capex growth, which the firm estimates has accelerated to 5% in 2026 from 2.4% in 2025.
Goldman addressed concerns that elevated energy costs could dampen investment activity. The bank said the historical connection between higher oil prices and energy-sector capital spending has "weakened considerably in recent years as producers have prioritized capital discipline over production growth." Goldman noted that high-frequency data through May show little change in drilling and production activity despite higher prices.
The firm identified two principal drivers expected to sustain capex momentum through the end of the year. First, Goldman estimated that artificial intelligence will add roughly 3.3 percentage points to true capex growth in 2026 as companies continue to build infrastructure and increase enterprise AI adoption, which in turn supports visible software and research-and-development spending.
Second, tax incentives embedded in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to contribute about an additional 3 percentage points to capex growth, according to Goldman.
Goldman also pointed to the fading of two headwinds that weighed on investment in 2025. The bank expects the drag from higher tariffs to diminish from 1.5 percentage points in 2025 to around 0.7 percentage points in 2026. At the same time, the negative impact from normalizing factory construction should also shrink, easing pressure on overall investment growth.
In aggregate, Goldman's updated forecasts imply full-year 2026 gross domestic product growth of 2.1%.
Takeaways
- Goldman raised its 2026 capex growth forecast to 7.8% from 6.5% following strong Q1 investment readings and accelerating domestic capex.
- The bank judges higher oil prices are unlikely to significantly curb investment, citing a weakened historical link between oil prices and energy capex and stable drilling and production activity through May.
- AI-related infrastructure and tax incentives from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are two central supports for capex, together accounting for an estimated roughly 6.3 percentage points of uplift in 2026.
Contextual notes
Goldman quantified the relative contributions and drags on investment: AI is estimated to add 3.3 percentage points, tax incentives roughly 3 percentage points, tariff drag is expected to shrink from 1.5 to 0.7 percentage points, and normalizing factory construction is expected to be a smaller headwind than in 2025.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Technology-related capital spending, including software and R&D tied to enterprise AI, is a primary beneficiary of the projected capex acceleration.
- Industrials and equipment-related sectors that support infrastructure and factory investment could see sustained demand if the capex trajectory remains intact.
- Energy-sector investment appears less sensitive to oil-price movements under Goldman's assessment, given producers' emphasis on capital discipline.
Limitations
The note's conclusions rest on recent high-frequency data through May and Goldman's modeling of drivers and drags; the firm also made specific quantitative assumptions about AI contributions, tax incentives, and tariff impacts that underpin its projections.