Goldman Sachs on Thursday moved Flughafen Zurich (SIX:FHZN) up to a "buy" recommendation from "neutral," while nudging its 12-month price target to SFr265 from SFr257. The new target equates to roughly 18.2% upside from the stock's last close at SFr224.20.
The brokerage noted that Flughafen Zurich's shares have retraced about 20% from their highs. That drop, Goldman Sachs said, has already factored in two of the principal concerns that had constrained the stock: an October aviation fee reduction and a softer traffic outlook tied to the Hormuz crisis.
On the regulatory front, aviation charges were cut by 10% from October, a move Goldman Sachs described as worse than it had expected. The firm adjusted its earnings and dividend forecasts to reflect that regulatory impact combined with the traffic assumptions embedded in its model.
Goldman Sachs now projects earnings per share (EPS) will fall from SFr11.29 in 2025 to a trough of SFr9.86 in 2027, before recovering to SFr11.32 in 2028. Dividends per share are expected to mirror that trajectory, declining from SFr8.50 in 2025 to SFr7.40 in 2027, and then rising to SFr8.49 in 2028. Those DPS figures assume a 75% payout ratio, which Goldman Sachs notes sits at the high end of the company's stated policy. The analysts' dividend-per-share forecasts for 2026-29 sit above Bloomberg consensus, according to the note.
Traffic trends form a central plank of the brokerage's more constructive stance. Flughafen Zurich reported passenger growth of 6% year-to-date through April 2026, a pace Goldman Sachs identifies as the strongest within its European coverage. The analysts raised their first-half 2026 traffic-growth forecast to 5.3%, while assuming growth slows to 1.8% in the second half. Goldman Sachs attributes the airport's outperformance to the economic resilience of the greater Zurich area and its expanding role as a technology and innovation hub.
Supporting that view, the note cited regional business expansion figures: the canton logged 98 international business expansions, with advanced technology and artificial intelligence accounting for 47 projects, followed by healthcare and biotech with 19 projects.
Fuel-supply dynamics also feature in Goldman Sachs' analysis. Swiss law requires jet-fuel reserves equivalent to 90 days of consumption, compared with a 60-day requirement in the European Union. Reported reserves most recently stood at 71 days, down from 83 days in summer 2025, according to the brokerage's note.
On the international development front, Goldman Sachs highlighted Flughafen Zurich's newly opened Noida airport near Delhi as a medium-term earnings driver. The bank said it expects the Noida asset to be dilutive to EPS until around 2028 before turning accretive in 2029.
Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts group EPS of SFr13.20 by 2030 and dividends per share of SFr9.90 in the same year. The firm's discounted cash flow valuation implies the shares could reach roughly SFr300 by 2030, on the assumption of a 3% dividend yield consistent with the stock's historical average. Goldman Sachs cited a roughly 70 basis-point yield on the 30-year Swiss sovereign bond as supportive for that dividend-yield assumption.
Goldman Sachs' upgrade comes with caveats. The note lists several material risks that could undercut the investment case, including weaker-than-expected traffic growth at Zurich and Noida airports, unresolved regulated charges at Noida, higher Swiss interest rates, and the outcome of a Swiss referendum on population growth scheduled for June.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Aviation and airport operators - The rating change underscores sensitivity to regulatory fees, passenger demand and fuel-reserve dynamics.
- Regional technology and commercial real estate - The Zurich area’s business expansions tied to advanced technology and AI are cited as a demand driver for air travel.
- Fixed income and interest-rate markets - Goldman Sachs highlights Swiss sovereign yields as a factor in its valuation assumptions.
The upgrade reflects a view that the market has already priced in near-term regulatory and geopolitical risks, while recent traffic momentum and longer-term growth initiatives such as Noida support a recovery in earnings and dividends over the next several years.