Goldman Sachs analysts have highlighted two copper producers as top stock picks in the context of an expected tightening of the copper market outside the United States over the 2026-27 period. The bank's view rests on a mix of lower-than-anticipated mine supply, limited offsets from scrap, and shifts in trade flows linked to tariff developments.
Market balance and inventories
Goldman Sachs quantifies the downward revision to global mine supply at roughly 350,000 tons, equivalent to about 1.5% of global mined production across 2026 and 2027. The adjustment largely reflects slower-than-expected recoveries at two major operations - Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula - with Goldman projecting that full recovery at those mines will not arrive until 2028.
At the same time, refined copper tightness is not being relieved by scrap flows. The bank cites weaker domestic availability of scrap in China as a reason scrap is not offsetting the shortfall in refined metal.
Trade flows are also shifting. Stronger U.S. imports in the first half of 2026 have the effect of drawing metal into the U.S. system and out of the ex-U.S. market. Goldman expects U.S. inventories to rise by approximately 900,000 tons during 2026, reaching roughly 1.8 million tons by year-end. That repositioning helps explain why Goldman projects material deficits outside the United States - deficits of about 640,000 tons in 2026 and 170,000 tons in 2027.
Tariff decision as the near-term trigger
Goldman Sachs identifies the imminent U.S. tariff outcome as the principal near-term catalyst. If tariffs are introduced with a January 2027 start date, the bank expects that would prompt the U.S. to pull forward additional imports, further tightening the ex-U.S. market and creating upward pressure on prices. Under that scenario, Goldman suggests London Metal Exchange prices could move above $14,000 per ton in the second half of 2026.
Conversely, the bank notes that if no tariff announcement is made, current price levels could remain supported by ex-U.S. tightness. However, a clear no-tariff outcome would have the opposite effect - reducing the projected ex-U.S. deficit and potentially flipping 2027 back into surplus, a development Goldman says could push prices toward approximately $12,800 per ton.
Goldman Sachs' stock picks
Against this market backdrop, Goldman Sachs has rated two companies as buys: Lundin and Antofagasta.
Lundin - Goldman frames Lundin's appeal around relative valuation and concentrated copper exposure. The firm values Lundin at about 1x price-to-net asset value versus peers trading closer to 1.5x to 2x. Lundin's copper exposure is high, with copper revenue accounting for 85% of total revenue, one of the largest shares in the peer group. Operationally, Lundin has exhibited continued production performance and disciplined cost management. Looking ahead, Goldman points to Vicuna RIGI approval and a final investment decision expected in late 2026 as key growth catalysts. Separately, Lundin reported strong first-quarter 2026 financial results, including a robust adjusted EBITDA margin and notable cash flow generation.
Antofagasta - Goldman also recommends Antofagasta, emphasizing its leverage to copper and gold and a scarcity premium as one of the relatively few scalable, pure European copper-gold equities. The bank highlights the company’s execution track record and credible medium-term growth targets, with the portfolio anchored by the Centinela and Pelambres operations. Goldman notes these two assets make up around 80% of current output and are expected to deliver approximately 95% of Antofagasta’s production growth over the decade. The Centinela expansion - specifically the progression of a second concentrator - is flagged as a central growth driver. The note also records that Antofagasta has seen a number of analyst rating moves recently, with downgrades to Hold from Berenberg, to Underperform from RBC Capital, and to Neutral from JPMorgan.
Implications for investors
Goldman Sachs’ analysis links company-level investment cases to structural market dynamics - namely reduced mine supply, constrained scrap availability, and the uncertain near-term impact of U.S. tariff policy on trade flows. For investors, the bank’s preferred names reflect both valuation considerations and concentrated upside to copper prices if ex-U.S. deficits materialize as forecasted.