Goldman Sachs began formal coverage of Prosus N.V. (AS:PRX) and Naspers Ltd (JO:NPNJn) with neutral recommendations, assigning a price target of €41 for Prosus and ZAR 902 for Naspers.
The bank said it had applied a 35% discount to a one-year forward net asset value (NAV) for Prosus to arrive at its €41 target. Goldman Sachs placed Prosus' one-year forward NAV at $145.58 billion, equivalent to €63 per share before the discount. Applying the 35% NAV haircut produced the €41 price objective.
Tencent remains the dominant value driver within the valuation. Prosus' 22.7% holding in Tencent accounts for 86.2% of the enterprise value Goldman Sachs attributes to Prosus, or $123.26 billion of the target enterprise value.
Goldman Sachs explicitly used current market values for listed stakes when deriving its target, rather than applying its internal Tencent price target of HK$700. The bank notes that using its Tencent price target would imply a higher Prosus valuation of €57 per share - about 31% above the then-current Prosus share price of €40.25 - but the firm based its published Prosus target on prevailing market levels for listed assets.
Among the operational pressures Goldman Sachs highlighted, the most immediate is competition in Brazilian food delivery. The bank noted that Meituan-owned Keeta entered the Brazilian market in October 2025 and that 99Food relaunched operations in mid-2025. According to Goldman Sachs, those two Chinese-backed rivals committed more than $1.50 billion in spending in the current year, adding material competitive intensity.
Prosus itself guided iFood adjusted EBITDA to a decline to a range of $100 million to $150 million in fiscal 2027 - a level considerably below prior Visible Alpha consensus data, which stood at $339 million before the guidance. Goldman Sachs modeled iFood adjusted EBITDA at $144 million for FY27, a figure the bank says is 56% below its referenced consensus of $330 million.
Just Eat, which Prosus acquired in February 2025 for €4.10 billion, is expected by the company to deliver adjusted EBITDA of more than $100 million in FY27. Goldman Sachs forecast $105 million for Just Eat in FY27, which the bank points out is 43% below the consensus estimate of $183 million.
The bank also flagged changes to the pace of buybacks as a factor shaping NAV outcomes. Goldman Sachs noted that Prosus' chief executive stated in a May 12 shareholder letter that the company continued to repurchase shares at an approximate US$5 billion annual run rate. Actual repurchases stood at $7.30 billion in FY24 and $8.40 billion in FY25. Goldman Sachs estimated repurchases of $7.30 billion in FY26, before assuming a reduced $5 billion annual pace thereafter in its base case.
In a scenario analysis, Goldman Sachs showed that maintaining an $8 billion annual buyback would lift NAV per share by 7% by fiscal 2030 versus a $5 billion annual buyback base case, illustrating the sensitivity of NAV trajectory to the pace of repurchases.
On the eCommerce business front, Goldman Sachs forecast that OLX would produce $448 million in adjusted EBITDA in FY26 - described as nearly half of total eCommerce adjusted EBITDA - and grow to $800 million by FY30. The bank projected OLX margins in the 48% to 52% range on adjusted EBITDA by FY30. For the eCommerce division overall, Goldman Sachs modelled adjusted EBITDA of $984 million in FY26, rising to $2.33 billion by FY30.
Goldman Sachs presented forecasts for free cash flow from operating assets excluding Tencent dividends as well. The bank expected free cash flow of $301 million in FY26, a fall into negative territory of -$117 million in FY27, and a subsequent recovery to $955 million by FY30.
For Naspers, Goldman Sachs applied the same 35% NAV discount used for Prosus to derive a ZAR 902 price target. The bank noted that this 35% discount sits below the 43% average discount observed since the start of 2026. The ZAR 902 target was set against a closing Naspers share price of ZAR 889.64.
Takeaway - Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of Prosus and Naspers at neutral, applying a 35% discount to forward NAV and emphasizing near-term operational pressures in Brazil's food-delivery market, guided weakness in iFood EBITDA, and a scaled-back buyback profile that together are unlikely, in the bank's view, to materially close the c.30% discount to NAV over the next 12 months.