Goldman Sachs downgraded German outdoor advertising company Stroeer SE & Co. (ETR:SAXG) to "sell" from "neutral" and lowered its 12-month price target to €37 from €43. The bank said the decision was driven by an increasingly challenging German macroeconomic environment and mounting weakness in Stroeer's DaaS & E-Commerce segment.
The new €37 target represents roughly a 1.1% downside versus the stock's previous close of €37.40, and Stroeer shares fell by more than 3% on the news.
Macro backdrop and top-line implications
Goldman Sachs highlighted a significant deterioration in Germany's IFO business climate survey in April, describing it as a sharper decline than the shock the market experienced following U.S. tariff announcements in 2025. The bank's economics team has trimmed its German real GDP forecasts to 0.7% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, down from prior assumptions of 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. The revisions reflect higher energy prices and tighter European financial conditions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, according to the broker.
Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs said it expects a weaker contribution from Stroeer's core out-of-home (OOH) advertising business. Even though Stroeer reported 5.4% organic growth in OOH during the first quarter of 2026, the broker reduced its full-year group organic revenue growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5% from 2.9%, and trimmed its 2027 organic growth estimate by 110 basis points to 3.3%.
The analysts noted that rival JCDecaux had experienced low-single-digit revenue declines in Germany in the first quarter, reinforcing Goldman Sachs' view that the domestic advertising market is under pressure.
DaaS & E-Commerce segment under strain
Goldman Sachs expressed heightened concern about Stroeer's DaaS & E-Commerce division, which made up 17% of group revenue but only 7% of EBITDA in 2025. The broker forecast operating EBITDA for that segment would fall 26% year-on-year in 2026, notably worse than the Visible Alpha consensus expectation of a 19% decline. It also forecast the segment's operating EBITDA margin would compress to 9.2%.
Within the division, Goldman Sachs singled out Statista and ASAM Beauty as particularly challenged. For Statista, the bank cited a 70% global decline in website visits over the past two years as traffic has increasingly shifted to AI-powered search and discovery tools. Based on that trend and recent results, Goldman Sachs forecast Statista's organic revenue would decline 1% in 2026, after 3% growth in 2025 and double-digit expansion during 2022-2024. Statista's revenue was already down 4% in the first quarter of 2026.
On ASAM Beauty, Goldman Sachs referenced Nielsen data showing Germany's beauty and personal care market slowed to 1.2% growth in April from about 5% in the first quarter, marking the slowest expansion since mid-2024.
Profitability, valuation and downside
For the group as a whole, Goldman Sachs projected operating EBITDA of €634.1 million in 2026, representing about 1% year-on-year growth, and adjusted earnings per share of €2.95. The bank valued Stroeer's OOH business at 6.0 times estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA, applying a discount to global peers to reflect what it sees as a lower growth profile. Using a sum-of-the-parts approach, Goldman Sachs derived a valuation of €37 per share.
Goldman Sachs noted Stroeer was trading at an estimated 5.2 times 2027 EV/operating EBITDA, below its roughly 8 times 10-year median multiple. The broker said it expects group EBITDA to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% between 2026 and 2030, compared with average annual growth of about 17% over the past decade.
Potential upside and takeover speculation
While the downgrade emphasizes downside risks, Goldman Sachs identified potential takeover activity as the principal upside scenario. The analysts pointed to media reports from May 7 that private equity firms Blackstone and I Squared Capital had explored acquiring Stroeer in a transaction valuing the company at around €2.5 billion, or approximately €45 per share. Subsequent reports on May 19 indicated Blackstone had withdrawn from the process while I Squared Capital was continuing to consider its options.
Market reaction and brokerage stance
The downgrade and lowered price target reflected Goldman Sachs' reassessment of both top-line prospects in core OOH and the trajectory of the DaaS & E-Commerce business. In addition to trimming revenue growth assumptions for 2026 and 2027, the broker expects the DaaS & E-Commerce division to exert disproportionate pressure on group profitability in the near term.
Stroeer's share price reaction - a drop of more than 3% following the report - underlines investor sensitivity to the combination of a softer German economic outlook and operational headwinds in its digital commerce operations.
Summary
Goldman Sachs downgraded Stroeer to sell and lowered its 12-month target to €37, citing a deteriorating German macro climate and continued weakness in the DaaS & E-Commerce unit. The broker cut near-term revenue growth forecasts, projected a sharp EBITDA decline for the DaaS segment, and set a group operating EBITDA forecast of €634.1 million for 2026. Potential takeover interest from private equity was noted as the main upside risk.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs downgraded Stroeer to "sell" and cut its 12-month price target to €37 from €43; the stock fell more than 3% after the note.
- The broker lowered German GDP forecasts for 2026 and 2027 and sees a weaker OOH advertising market, trimming group organic revenue growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
- DaaS & E-Commerce is a material drag - forecasted to see a 26% decline in operating EBITDA in 2026 - with Statista traffic losses and slower ASAM Beauty market growth highlighted.
Risks and uncertainties
- German macro weakness - lower consumer and advertising demand could further pressure OOH revenues and wider media sector performance.
- DaaS & E-Commerce deterioration - continued declines in traffic and profitability at Statista and slower growth at ASAM could weigh on group EBITDA and margins.
- Execution and valuation risks - lower growth expectations and a compressed EBITDA multiple leave limited near-term upside absent strategic moves or takeover interest.