Goldman Sachs says inflation pressures across the Asia-Pacific region have strengthened following the outbreak of hostilities and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The firm highlights a significant upward repricing of energy markets that has fed through to import prices, producer prices and retail fuel costs across the region since late February.
According to the bank's commodity strategists, forecasts for energy prices were raised sharply after the conflict began. The strategists now project Brent crude to be around $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, while noting there are upside risks to that forecast. In response to rising wholesale fuel costs, some governments have applied subsidies that have moderated or capped retail fuel prices, but those buffers vary considerably between countries.
Goldman Sachs reports that both headline and core consumer price inflation now sit at or above the targets set by central banks in most Asia-Pacific economies. In Australia and the Philippines, headline and core inflation measures have exceeded the upper bound of the respective central bank target bands. That contrasts with the pre-conflict period when CPI inflation in most countries was broadly in line with or below targets.
The bank points to particularly intense inflationary pressure in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. In these nations, seasonally-adjusted CPI inflation over the past three months annualizes at rates well above 10 percent. Goldman Sachs notes lower-income economies such as these have more limited subsidy capacity to cushion the impact of energy price increases.
Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs' CPI projections remain above consensus for India and most of Southeast Asia, while aligning with consensus for other regional economies. Wage inflation, by contrast, has been generally stable or subdued across most countries covered by the report, though Korea and Indonesia showed an uptick in wage growth in data through February.
Summary
Energy-driven cost pressures since late February have pushed import, producer and retail fuel prices higher across Asia-Pacific, lifting headline and core CPI to levels at or above central bank targets in most economies, with the most acute moves in lower-income countries with limited subsidy capacity.