Stock Markets May 22, 2026 12:04 PM

Goldman Sachs Flags Record Low in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

May final reading revised down to 44.8 with rising near- and long-term inflation expectations and growing concern over high prices

By Nina Shah

Goldman Sachs highlighted a downward revision to the University of Michigan’s May final consumer sentiment index, which fell to a record-low 44.8, below preliminary estimates. Both the current conditions and expectations subindexes hit historic lows, while short- and long-term inflation expectations climbed. The data show increasing consumer concern that high prices are eroding personal finances and that inflation could widen beyond fuel costs.

Goldman Sachs Flags Record Low in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Key Points

  • University of Michigan May final consumer sentiment index revised to 44.8 - lowest in survey history.
  • Both subindexes declined: current conditions to 45.8 and expectations to 44.1, indicating broader consumer pessimism.
  • Short-term (1-year) inflation expectations rose to 4.8% and 5-10 year expectations rose to 3.9%, while 57% of respondents said high prices are eroding their finances.

Goldman Sachs said the University of Michigan’s May final consumer sentiment index was revised downward to 44.8, marking the lowest reading in the survey’s history. The final figure came in 3.4 points below the initial estimate, according to Goldman Sachs’ analysis.

Both components of the headline gauge reached unprecedented lows in the May final report. The measure of current economic conditions fell by 2.0 points to 45.8, while the consumer expectations component declined 4.4 points to 44.1.

Inflation expectations shifted higher in the revised survey. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations were revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 4.8% in the May final reading, a level the report identifies as the highest since August 2025. Expectations for inflation over the next five to ten years rose 0.5 percentage points to 3.9%.

The University of Michigan’s release also highlighted that price pressures are weighing on households. It reported that 57% of respondents spontaneously said that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% in the prior month. The cost of living remains a primary concern for survey participants.

The survey’s commentary suggests consumers are worried not only about near-term price gains but also about inflation broadening beyond fuel costs over both the near term and in the longer run. That concern is reflected in the upward revisions to both short- and longer-term inflation expectations.

These readings imply heightened consumer unease around purchasing power and the trajectory of inflation. The revisions to the University of Michigan data in the May final report indicate that respondents felt more pessimistic at the time of the survey than initial estimates suggested.


Clear summary

The May final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised down to 44.8, the lowest on record, with both current conditions and expectations at historic lows. Short- and long-term inflation expectations increased, and a larger share of consumers reported that high prices are eroding their finances. Consumers signal concern that inflation could spread beyond fuel costs.

Risks

  • Elevated near-term inflation expectations could pressure consumer purchasing power and spending - this primarily affects consumer-facing sectors such as retail and consumer discretionary.
  • Persistent concerns that inflation may spread beyond fuel prices create uncertainty for household budgets and saving behavior, with potential implications for broader economic activity and markets.
  • The downward revision and record-low sentiment reflect heightened consumer pessimism, increasing the risk of weaker demand growth in sectors reliant on discretionary spending.

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