Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered its rating on Intuit to Sell from Neutral and reduced its 12-month price target to $276 from $519, citing a growing competitive threat to the company’s tax franchise that could pressure future results.
The bank, led by analysts under Gabriela Borges, signaled that near-term sentiment around the shares could remain muted as analysts trim estimates. By 06:32 ET the stock was down more than 4% in premarket trading. The shares have been under significant pressure this year, sliding roughly 46% year-to-date versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500.
TurboTax at the center of Goldman’s concerns
Goldman identified TurboTax as the primary area of vulnerability. TurboTax contributes roughly 25% of Intuit’s revenue and operating income, making it a major profit driver for the company. The bank warned that a new cohort of AI-first tax competitors - including Prime Meridian, Perplexity Tax, and Chime Tax - appear to be advancing beyond their initial viral growth phases and are maturing in both product capability and go-to-market approach.
Goldman estimated that the incremental cost to run AI models to process a typical individual tax return could be as low as $0.12, compared with TurboTax’s blended average revenue per return of $162. Based on that gap, the bank argued these entrants could underprice established providers without requiring sustained venture subsidies.
"We see the potential for increased competition over the next 2 years," analysts led by Gabriela Borges wrote. "This will likely show up in lower market share or in lower average revenue per user (ARPU), albeit with some offset from positive mix shift into Assisted."
Mailchimp and growth assumptions
Goldman also drew attention to Intuit’s Mailchimp business, which accounts for about 7% of company revenue. Management had aimed for double-digit exit-rate growth in fiscal 2026 for the email marketing and automation unit, but the most recent quarter showed a slight year-over-year decline.
The analysts expect further deceleration in Mailchimp as Intuit adjusts costs to align with what Goldman describes as a lower-growth profile. They said the current Street estimates for the next two years largely assume no slowdown in revenue growth rates, a stance Goldman views as optimistic.
"We think it may be challenging for Intuit to achieve its long-term financial targets, and Street estimates for the next 2 years that essentially reflect no deceleration in revenue growth rates," the analysts continued.
Financial modeling and valuation changes
Goldman’s fiscal 2028 GAAP EPS estimate for Intuit is $28.55, which the bank noted sits about 13% below consensus on the Street. In a base-case analysis focused solely on TurboTax, Goldman modeled a scenario in which revenue for the product is roughly 18% below fiscal 2025 levels by 2030, based on an assumption that 20% of U.S. tax filers migrate to AI-only solutions.
Reflecting these outlook shifts, Goldman reset its valuation multiple to 15 times GAAP earnings - a modest discount to software peers with similar growth profiles. The bank said this multiple reflects its view that Intuit’s long-term revenue growth trajectory has moved from a historical compounded annual growth rate near 14% into a lower 5-10% range.
Offsets and defensive actions
Goldman acknowledged several factors that could help defend Intuit’s earnings in a weaker growth environment. These include Intuit’s recently announced partnership with Anthropic, potential share gains in higher-ARPU assisted-tax offerings, and a workforce reduction of about 17% announced in May, which Goldman sees as a cost-rightsizing step. The analysts also noted Intuit’s multi-decade track record of adapting to technological change.
"Intuit has a 20+ year history of adapting to technological change," the analysts said.
What this means for investors
Goldman’s downgrade and lower price target reflect the bank’s view that rising AI-driven competition and softening growth in non-tax businesses pose a meaningful risk to Intuit’s revenue and earnings trajectory. The firm’s revised estimates and valuation multiple signal a reassessment of long-term growth expectations, with the potential for continued share price pressure while the market digests these revisions.