Overview
Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on Boeing Company to Positive from Stable and reaffirmed the firm's long-term issuer default rating at 'BBB-' on Friday. At the same time, the agency kept Boeing's short-term issuer default rating and commercial paper rating at 'F3' and maintained its senior unsecured notes and revolvers at 'BBB-'.
Production and certification progress
Fitch pointed to what it views as a durable recovery in Boeing's 737 MAX production as a principal reason for the outlook change, saying the improvement materially de-risks the company's path toward credit metrics consistent with a higher rating. The agency noted that MAX output has stabilized at 42 aircraft per month and that the Federal Aviation Administration has cleared Boeing to advance toward 47 per month. Separately, the 787 production line has steadied on a path toward 10 per month.
Fitch's rating case further assumes the MAX production rate reaches 52 per month during 2027 and that certification occurs for the -7 and -10 variants in the second half of 2026, with the 777X certified in 2027.
Profitability, cash flow and debt trends
The agency emphasized the combination of stabilizing output, Boeing's return to full-year profitability in 2025, and an anticipated inflection to positive free cash flow in 2026 as underpinning a credible deleveraging trajectory. Fitch expects Boeing to generate consistently positive free cash flow from 2026 onward, calling this a credible inflection after several years of significant cash burn.
Boeing has guided to positive free cash flow of $1 billion to $3 billion in 2026, reversing the negative $14.3 billion recorded in 2024. Fitch expects cash generation to build steadily thereafter as delivery rates rise and working capital normalizes.
On the balance sheet, Boeing reduced gross debt by $8.3 billion in the first half of 2026 to approximately $45.9 billion, using cash on hand to retire maturities rather than refinancing. Fitch assumes Boeing will repay $4.3 billion of debt due in 2027 with internally generated cash.
Leverage and earnings outlook
Fitch projects recovering EBITDA combined with continued debt repayment will lower EBITDA leverage from about 4.8x in 2026 to below 3.5x in 2027 and roughly 2.5x in 2028. The agency highlighted Boeing's backlog of roughly $695 billion, including more than 6,100 commercial aircraft, as a factor that converts the production ramp into a visible multi-year earnings and cash flow trajectory.
Implications
Fitch framed its outlook revision as evidence that progress on production rates and cash generation materially strengthens Boeing's credit profile, conditional on the company meeting the operational and certification assumptions cited by the agency.