Elia published its trading statement for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday morning, and the announcement was met with a small uplift in its Belgian-listed shares, which gained 1.1% during the session.
The group confirmed its full-year 2026 net profit outlook at the group level, unchanged at a range of 0690 million to 0740 million. This group-wide guidance is underpinned by segmented expectations, with adjusted net profit in Belgium projected at 0290 million to 0320 million and Germany at 0585 million to 0625 million on a 100% basis.
Elia also outlined its capital expenditure plans for the year, targeting approximately 01.7 billion of investments in Belgium and around 05.1 billion in Germany. These investment figures represent the companys deployment plans for the 2026 financial year and were presented alongside the profit guidance.
On the regulatory front in Belgium, authorities have published a draft tariff methodology for the 2028-2031 regulatory period. The company said the draft appears consistent with the current regulatory framework. A final methodology is expected to be published no later than June 30, 2026.
Elia reiterated that its equity gearing ratio remains set at 40% of the regulated asset base. Under the stated parameters, any excess equity would be remunerated at the reference OLO rate plus 70 basis points. The company provided an expectation that the average post-tax base return on equity will be approximately 5.8%.
Elia further noted how different assumptions would affect returns. Assuming average OLO levels of 3.4% and the effective achievement of incentive targets, the achieved average post-tax return on equity for the period would equate to 8.1%. The revised regulatory framework expands the number of incentive mechanisms to 18, compared with 16 previously.
On financing moves, the group reported several new credit and capital instruments. Eurogrid signed a 05.25 billion green revolving credit facility. ETB secured a 02.0 billion sustainability-linked revolving credit facility. In addition, the group placed 0900 million of new hybrid securities carrying a fixed coupon of 4.625% until August 5, 2031.
Summary
Elia confirmed its 2026 full-year net profit guidance at the group and segment levels, set out planned investments totaling about 06.8 billion across Belgium and Germany, flagged a draft Belgian tariff methodology consistent with current rules, and disclosed new funding arrangements including large revolving credit facilities and hybrid issuance.
Key points
- Full-year 2026 group net profit guidance maintained at 0690 million to 0740 million; Belgium adjusted net profit expected at 0290 million to 0320 million, Germany at 0585 million to 0625 million (100%).
- Planned investments of approximately 01.7 billion in Belgium and 05.1 billion in Germany for 2026.
- New funding measures include a 05.25 billion green RCF for Eurogrid, a 02.0 billion sustainability-linked RCF for ETB, and 0900 million of hybrid securities at a 4.625% fixed coupon to August 5, 2031.
Risks and uncertainties
- Regulatory outcome risk: The final Belgian tariff methodology for 2028-2031 is pending and expected by June 30, 2026; any changes from the draft could affect returns and tariffs - impacting the utilities and regulated energy sectors.
- Return sensitivity: Achieved post-tax return on equity depends on market OLO levels and the effective attainment of incentive targets; variations in interest rate benchmarks and incentive performance could alter realized returns - relevant to fixed income-sensitive utilities financing.
- Financing exposure: Planned funding and hybrid issuance levels influence the groups capital structure and cost of capital; shifts in credit markets could change financing conditions - affecting corporate finance and banking sectors involved in syndicated facilities.