Stock Markets May 31, 2026 10:33 AM

Cotality Sees Australian Housing Market Stall as Tax Changes and Rates Bite

May data show mixed city performance with rents rising and combined capitals slipping

By Avery Klein

Cotality reported that Australian home prices were broadly flat in May as higher borrowing costs and recent tax reforms targeting property investors weakened buyer demand across most major cities. Sydney and Melbourne led declines, while Perth and Darwin posted the strongest gains. Rents continued to climb, with annual national rent growth hitting 5.9%.

Cotality Sees Australian Housing Market Stall as Tax Changes and Rates Bite

Key Points

  • Home prices were broadly stagnant in May, with the combined capitals index down 0.1% - impacts housing market and mortgage lenders.
  • Sydney and Melbourne posted the largest monthly falls at 0.9% and 0.8% respectively, while Perth and Darwin rose 1.5% - impacts regional property markets and investors.
  • Rents increased 0.6% in May and national annual rent growth reached 5.9%, the highest since the 12 months to September 2024 - impacts rental market, tenants, and residential landlords.

Property consultancy Cotality reported subdued movement in Australian home prices for May, attributing the stagnation to elevated borrowing costs and new tax measures directed at property investors that have reduced demand in many metropolitan areas.

In its monthly report released Monday, Cotality recorded a 0.9% fall in Sydney prices and a 0.8% decline in Melbourne for May. Perth and Darwin outperformed, each rising 1.5%, while Brisbane and Hobart both increased by 0.9%. Overall, the combined capitals index registered a 0.1% decline for the month.

The Australian government introduced tax reforms aimed at property investors in April, a policy move that has raised concerns about further weakening in the housing sector. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has increased interest rates three times so far this year to rein in inflation, a course that has raised borrowing costs for prospective buyers.

Sydney remains one of the least affordable major housing markets, with its median home price close to A$1.3 million, or about $934,000. The city experienced price declines between October 2024 and January 2025, and earlier saw a 12.4% fall in the 12 months to January 2023 as interest rates rose from record lows.

Rental markets continued to show upward pressure. Rents rose 0.6% in May, the same monthly pace recorded in April, though this was a slight deceleration from the 0.7% monthly gains seen in the first three months of 2026. On an annual basis, national rent growth reached 5.9%, marking the largest year-on-year increase since the 12 months ended September 2024.

The data from Cotality highlights a housing market navigating policy changes and higher finance costs, producing divergent outcomes across cities and sustained upward pressure in rents.


Additional context

The report implies that policy and monetary adjustments are influencing buyer behaviour, while rental markets continue to tighten nationally. The mixed city-level performance underscores uneven local dynamics within the broader national trend described by Cotality.

Risks

  • Policy risk from tax changes targeting property investors, unveiled in April, could further depress investor demand and weigh on property prices - affects real estate investors and related financial services.
  • Higher borrowing costs after three interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year may continue to dampen buyer activity - affects mortgage holders, lenders, and housing demand.
  • City-level divergence in price movements creates uncertainty for regional markets and investors seeking stable returns - affects developers, local governments, and property-focused funds.

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