Citi Data Shows US Restaurant Visits Slip 2.0% in Late June

Citi's foot-traffic tracking indicates a 2.0% year-over-year decline in U.S. restaurant visits for the week ended June 28, a steeper drop than the prior week's 1.1% decrease. The data show divergent results across full-service, limited-service and fast casual operators, with notable winners and laggards among major chains.

MCD WEN QSR YUM JACK

Summarize with

ChatGPT Perplexity Claude Grok Gemini

Key Points

Overall U.S. restaurant traffic declined 2.0% year-over-year for the week ended June 28, worsening from a 1.1% decline the prior week.
Full-service restaurants recorded 1.5% year-over-year growth; limited-service traffic fell 2.8%; fast casual grew 2.2%.
Chain-level performance was mixed: Cava led with +23.1% year-over-year, while Wendy’s saw the steepest drop at -18.1% year-over-year. Multiple public restaurant companies were referenced by ticker.

Foot traffic at U.S. restaurants fell 2.0% year-over-year for the week ended June 28, according to Citi's mobility and visit tracking, marking a heavier contraction than the 1.1% decline recorded in the prior week.

Breaking the figures down by format, full-service restaurants registered year-over-year growth of 1.5%, improving from the previous week. Limited-service establishments experienced a 2.8% decline year-over-year. Fast casual brands as a cohort reported year-over-year growth of 2.2%.

The chain-level data show a mix of outcomes. Among burger-focused brands, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) traffic dropped 3.9% year-over-year, Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) declined 18.1% year-over-year, and Burger King, owned by Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR), saw a 0.7% year-over-year decrease.

Popeye’s and Taco Bell - the former owned by QSR and the latter by Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) - both recorded accelerations in growth compared with the prior week. Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK) also posted stronger year-over-year growth over the week.

Other brand-level movements included Dutch Bros (NYSE:BROS), which grew 6.4% year-over-year, while KFC traffic fell 7.6% year-over-year. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) reported a 3.5% year-over-year increase.

Within the full-service segment, LongHorn Steakhouse saw traffic increase 8.2% year-over-year and Olive Garden rose 2.5% year-over-year; both brands are part of Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI). Additional full-service performance: BJ’s Restaurants (NASDAQ:BJRI) traffic rose 9.4% year-over-year, Chili’s grew 5.6% year-over-year, Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) increased 4.1% year-over-year, and Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH) grew 4.3% year-over-year. Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) experienced a 3.1% year-over-year decline in traffic.

Cava Group (NYSE:CAVA) posted the largest year-over-year increase among named chains, with traffic up 23.1%. Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) reported a 4.1% year-over-year increase, while Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING) traffic declined 4.3% year-over-year.

These weekly figures provide a snapshot of consumer visits to restaurants for the period ending June 28 and highlight variation across formats and individual chains. The data show improvements for several full-service names and fast casual operators, contrasted with declines at a range of limited-service brands.

Risks

Divergent results across segments and individual chains introduce uncertainty about the consistency of recovery in dining demand - this affects the restaurant sector and publicly traded restaurant companies.
Week-to-week variability in growth rates (some brands accelerated, others decelerated) makes it difficult to draw definitive trend conclusions from a single-week snapshot - this is relevant for equity investors in restaurant stocks.
The data reflect a single weekly period (week ended June 28) and thus represent a short-term view rather than a long-term trend, leaving interpretation of sustained momentum uncertain for market participants and sector analysts.

Menu

Citi Data Shows US Restaurant Visits Slip 2.0% in Late June

Key Points

Risks

More from Stock Markets