Citi elevated its price target for Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) to 530,000 won, up from 460,000 won, and boosted its 2026 operating profit forecast by 20%, pointing to a stronger-than-anticipated rebound in server DRAM pricing that the bank attributes to accelerating AI CPU demand.
The revised outlook reflects Citi's view that memory market fundamentals are firming rather than weakening, even as Samsung's shares have eased in recent weeks. Citi reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and argued the main driver of its updated model is a materially higher expected path for 64GB DDR5 RDIMM, the mainstream module for servers.
Under the bank's new assumptions, the 64GB DDR5 RDIMM module is modeled at $1,310 in Q2 2026, $1,612 in Q3 and $1,805 by Q4. Those levels compare with the bank's previous year-end 2026 forecast of $1,586.
Citi's new module pricing underpins its projection that Samsung's Q2 2026 DRAM and NAND average selling prices (ASPs) will rise by +44% and +57% quarter-over-quarter, respectively. The bank expects further price strength to continue through the second half of 2026.
- For the full year, Citi raised its 2026 global DRAM ASP growth estimate to +234% year-over-year, up from a prior forecast of +200%.
- Its NAND ASP growth forecast for 2026 was increased to +236% YoY from a previous +186%.
- Citi projects blended server DRAM ASP growth of +363% YoY and SSD pricing gains of +330% YoY in 2026.
The bank cites KV cache memory demand from AI inference workloads alongside CPU-driven DRAM buying as a structural tailwind that supports these steeper price assumptions.
Those revised pricing assumptions feed directly into Citi's earnings model for Samsung. The bank now forecasts full-year 2026 operating profit of 401 trillion won, up from a prior estimate of 334 trillion won. It also lifted its 2027 operating profit estimate by 24%, to 517 trillion won from 417 trillion won.
For the current quarter, Citi expects Samsung's Q2 2026 operating profit to reach 84 trillion won, supported by the stronger-than-expected server DRAM pricing environment. The bank's quarterly DRAM ASP growth projections for the rest of 2026 are now modeled at +20% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 and +13% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, versus its earlier assumptions of +13% and +11% for those periods.
NAND ASP growth estimates for Q3 and Q4 were also raised sharply, to +34% and +15% quarter-over-quarter, up from prior forecasts of +17% and +6%.
Addressing the recent softness in Samsung's share price, Citi disputed the view that concerns over AI infrastructure spending warrant a fundamental reassessment of memory demand. The analysts wrote that, while there has been market concern about excess AI computing capacity sparked by Meta, they regard the recent share price pullback as a technical correction.
"We believe the average selling price (ASP) of 64GB DDR5 RDIMM, the mainstream server DRAM, to be stronger than expected driven by accelerating AI CPU demand," Citi wrote, reiterating its Buy rating on the stock.
The bank's base case is that any near-term noise around AI capital expenditure is being overwhelmed by the structural demand for high-bandwidth and high-capacity server memory as CPU-based AI workloads scale. Citi added: "Despite the weakened market sentiment recently, we believe memory fundamentals are intact, projecting a server DRAM ASP rally in 2H26E."
Seoul-listed memory names have experienced intermittent selling pressure tied to broader questions about the sustainability of hyperscaler capital expenditure. Citi maintains, however, that server DRAM pricing has already been outperforming those concerns and that strong CPU demand is supporting memory pricing.
In its statement reiterating confidence in the market, the bank concluded: "We believe memory fundamentals are intact and server DRAM pricing has been outperforming on strong CPU demand."
Key data points and model changes from Citi are summarized in the paragraphs above. The revised price target, higher profit estimates and steeper ASP trajectories are central to the bank's defense of Samsung's investment case in the face of recent market volatility.