Analysts at BofA Securities and Barclays raised their price targets on ASML Holding NV on June 4, citing improving visibility into demand through 2028 and growing confidence that the company can expand EUV production beyond present capacity constraints.
BofA increased its target to €1,921 from €1,710 and kept a "buy" rating, while Barclays moved its target to €1,900 from €1,575 and reiterated an "overweight" stance. ASML shares were trading at €1,485.20 at the time of publication.
Key takeaways from BofA engagement
BofA hosted ASML Head of Investor Relations Jim Kavanagh at its Global Tech conference and highlighted three main takeaways from the discussion. First, the bank said EUV capacity could rise above 90 units by the end of calendar year 2027 as ASML shortens lead times and increases efficiencies on its assembly lines. Second, BofA noted that average selling prices and gross margins for EUV are increasing with the introduction of new E and F tool generations. Third, BofA expects China memory revenues to recover in 2027 as new clean room space becomes available, supporting momentum in ArFi tools.
BofA added that customers are providing unusually long visibility to ASML as their own demand forecasts trend higher, citing rising hyperscaler capital expenditure and long-term agreements across GPUs, CPUs, ASICs and DRAM.
Model and forecast changes
Following its review, BofA raised its 2028 low-NA EUV unit forecast from 87 to 97 while reducing its high-NA shipments estimate from 15 to 10. The bank now models delivery of 42 "F" tools in 2028, up from 11 in 2027. BofA projects 2028 revenue of €58.90 billion, adjusted EPS of €59.54, and gross margin expanding to 56.0% from 52.6% in 2026. The analyst applied a valuation of 27x 2028 EV/EBITDA, which the firm noted sits inside the stock's historical 18x to 34x range.
Barclays updated its own outlook in parallel. The broker models EUV low-NA units of 90 in 2027 and 100 in 2028, and forecasts 2028 revenue of €56.46 billion, adjusted EPS of €51.80, and EBITDA of €24.55 billion. Barclays also expects China sales to rise 9% in 2027.
Barclays said: "We see wafer supply growth as a good proxy for EUV revenues, which supports our EUV low NA growth of c60% and 20% in 2027/28, respectively." The broker rolled its valuation multiple to 2028 and applied a target 2027 P/E of approximately 38x.
Supply-chain and hiring signals
Barclays pointed to hiring trends at ASML and at key optical supplier Carl Zeiss SMT as corroborating evidence for capacity expansion. The broker said net hiring of field technicians at ASML reaccelerated after the fourth quarter of 2025, while Zeiss manufacturing engineer net hiring was recovering toward 10% after troughing at 6%.
Additional supplier commentary cited in the brokers' notes includes Jenoptik flagging strong lithography orders in the first quarter of 2026 and indicating new cleanroom capacity expected online in 2027, and Aalberts stating that capacity investments have already been made to support future EUV growth.
Relative positioning to consensus and valuation
Both BofA and Barclays' 2028 EPS forecasts sit above Bloomberg consensus for 2028 EPS of €48.30. BofA's 2028 EPS estimate of €59.54 is roughly 20% higher than that consensus number.
Downside risks
Both firms highlighted chief downside risks to their outlook: China export restrictions and weaker-than-expected semiconductor capital expenditure. These factors could weigh on equipment orders and the timing of capacity additions.
Subscription and model-based evaluation mention
The article also referenced model-driven stock selection tools that evaluate companies across many metrics. Those models compare fundamentals, momentum and valuation to help investors identify potential opportunities, and can indicate whether ASML appears within certain model-generated strategies at a given time.
Overall, the two broker upgrades reflect a more optimistic set of assumptions around EUV unit growth, supplier hiring and revenue trajectories through 2028, while noting geopolitical and capital expenditure risks that could reverse the positive scenario.