Overview
Korea's April export figures provide a directional read on HBM activity, and Bernstein interprets the numbers as supportive of strong HBM revenue growth for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in Q2 2026. Total multichip memory outbound to Taiwan and Malaysia - which the firm treats as a close proxy for HBM shipments - amounted to $3.7 billion in April. That figure was down roughly 12% from March on seasonal grounds but ahead 62% compared with January, implying healthy quarter-on-quarter expansion as the industry moves into Q2.
Samsung: packaging province data and revenue projection
Bernstein examined regional export flows for signals about Samsung's HBM packaging activity. Exports from South Chungcheong Province, where Samsung packages HBM, fell sharply in April but remain elevated relative to the start of the year, registering a 26% increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis versus January. Regression analysis using recent quarterly datapoints points to Samsung generating around $4.7 billion in HBM revenue in Q2, which would represent approximately 32% quarter-on-quarter growth.
Bernstein analyst Mark Li noted that the April datapoint was behind the firm's internal estimate and flagged an attribution for the gap: delays associated with Nvidia's Rubin platform that their forecasting model did not fully capture. In a statement to clients Li wrote, "All in all as Samsung guided, HBM4 ramp should see meaningful acceleration into 2H26, & we hence remain positive on Samsung’s HBM share gain this year despite the Apr data missed our current 2Q26 projection."
SK Hynix: factory-region strength and revenue outlook
SK Hynix's export profile showed continued strength. April shipments from North Chungcheong Province and Icheon rose a further 4% month-on-month from an already strong March, and were up about 81% quarter-on-quarter versus a weak January base. Applying the same regression methodology, Bernstein estimates SK Hynix will record roughly $7.5 billion in HBM revenue in Q2 2026, an increase of about 25% sequentially. That projection sits modestly below Bernstein's current internal forecast of $8.2 billion for SK Hynix.
HBM4 volumes, pricing and product-mix signals
Although Samsung has stated that HBM4 shipments began in February, Bernstein's tracking of April export value-per-weight data - used as a directional indicator of HBM pricing and product mix - did not show a clear signal of meaningful HBM4 volumes for either supplier in that month. Li observed contrasting short-term trends across the two companies: "Between them, the trend over the past few months has been generally positive for Samsung but flattish or declining for SK hynix."
On pricing, Bernstein points out that HBM has largely remained insulated from the recent sharp increases in conventional memory prices. The firm attributes this resilience to HBM sales being largely governed by long-term contract structures. Looking further ahead, Bernstein expects HBM prices to be reset higher in early 2027, a shift the analyst said could be relatively more beneficial to SK Hynix than to Samsung given SK Hynix's larger share of HBM contracts this year.
Market implications
Taken together, the April export snapshot and the regression-based revenue estimates support Bernstein's view that both Samsung and SK Hynix are positioned to deliver meaningful HBM revenue growth in Q2 2026. Samsung's projected ~32% sequential HBM growth to roughly $4.7 billion and SK Hynix's projected ~25% sequential growth to roughly $7.5 billion underscore the near-term importance of HBM to both firms' top-line performance.
Conclusion
Bernstein's read of Korea's April export flow suggests continued, if regionally varied, HBM momentum for the two major Korean memory suppliers. The data point to solid sequential revenue growth in Q2, while also highlighting uncertainties tied to platform-related timing, early-stage HBM4 volume recognition and the ultimate timing of any contract-driven pricing resets.