Shares in Lisi SA rose by more than 5% on Monday after Berenberg initiated coverage of the French industrial group with a Buy rating and a price target of 81. The German bank framed the company as an attractive way to access structural growth in the aerospace market.
Berenberg analyst Giovanni Selvetti described Lisi as "a high-quality industrial compounder with entrenched positions across automotive and, most importantly, aerospace fasteners." He added that despite some short-term geopolitical uncertainty, Lisi's "long-term prospects remain fundamentally strong."
Investment thesis and the aerospace opportunity
Berenberg's favourable view rests chiefly on Lisi's Aerospace division, which the bank labels the firm's crown jewel. The firm estimates Lisi is among the top three global producers of aerospace fasteners with an approximate 20% market share. That position sits in a market Berenberg says has significant barriers to entry due to complex manufacturing requirements, stringent safety certifications, short lead times and high switching costs for customers.
As supply-chain constraints ease and deliveries from major aircraft manufacturers accelerate, Berenberg expects Aerospace sales to gather momentum. The bank forecasts the division's EBIT margin to climb from around 12% at present to 13% by 2028, a level the analyst links to both higher volumes and improved returns.
Automotive segment outlook and margin trajectory
Selvetti expressed a more cautious stance on Lisi's Automotive business, noting that volumes have been under pressure as global light-vehicle production faces strains from geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty. Nonetheless, Berenberg models about 150 basis points of margin improvement for the automotive division over the next four years as Lisi invests in automation and shifts toward higher-value-added components.
Balance sheet, divestment proceeds and acquisition firepower
Another element of Berenberg's case is potential deal activity. Following Lisi's sale of its Medical division to SK Capital in 2025, the company received net proceeds of EUR270 million, reducing leverage to 0.9 times EBITDA. The bank estimates Lisi now has roughly EUR1 billion of capacity for acquisitions. Using a notional 12 times EBITDA purchase multiple, Berenberg suggests such deployment of capital could add about 20% to the broker's 2028 EPS forecasts.
Risks highlighted
Selvetti acknowledged the ongoing conflict in Iran as a near-term risk for the Aerospace business, citing possible disruption to Airbus deliveries to the Middle East. He flagged this as a factor that could affect short-term aerospace volumes even though the bank retains a positive medium-term view.
At the same time, pressure on automotive volumes driven by geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty represents a headwind in that segment. Berenberg's forecast for automotive margin improvement assumes successful execution of automation investments and product mix changes.
Conclusion
Berenberg's initiation highlights Lisi's market position in aerospace fasteners, targeted margin expansion across divisions and a stronger balance sheet following the Medical division sale. The combination of structural aerospace exposure and potential M&A firepower underpins the bank's Buy call and its 81 price target, while geopolitical and sector-specific volume risks remain near-term considerations.