Barclays increased its rating on FLSmidth & Co. to overweight from equal weight and raised its price objective 22% to DKK 600 from DKK 490, pointing to market share gains in pumps and a recovery in growth that it believes the market has not fully priced in.
The bank's revised target follows a valuation using a discounted cash flow framework with a weighted average cost of capital of 8.1% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. That analysis generates an estimated equity value of 32.64 billion Danish crowns, which Barclays equates to DKK 600 per share. The broker also published scenario ranges with an upside case of DKK 680 and a downside case of DKK 440.
FLSmidth closed at DKK 517.50 on May 20, producing implied upside of 15.9% to Barclays' new target.
Order momentum in pumps
Barclays flagged consecutive quarters of double-digit organic order growth in FLSmidth's mining pumps division - 21% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 16% in the first quarter of 2026. That performance, the brokerage said, outpaced Weir Minerals - the established market leader in mining pumps with more than 50% share - by roughly 20 percentage points over the two quarters.
Analysts at the broker described these figures as clear evidence of a market share shift toward FLSmidth. On Barclays' estimates, FLSmidth currently holds around 10% market share in pumps.
Earnings revisions and segment outlook
Barclays trimmed its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization estimate by 1.5% to 2.52 billion Danish crowns to reflect a softer first quarter. At the same time, the broker raised its 2027 and 2028 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 2.5-3%, modeling 2.87 billion and 3.09 billion Danish crowns respectively. Those upgrades are driven primarily by the Products and Pumps segments, and Barclays projects an EBITA compound annual growth rate of 10% through 2028.
The bank noted that its estimates represent low-single-digit upside to prevailing market consensus on Bloomberg, where the 2026 consensus adjusted EBITA stood at 2.45 billion Danish crowns versus Barclays' 2.52 billion figure.
Within group segmentation, the Products division - which accounts for roughly 20% of group sales - is expected to remain loss-making in 2026. Barclays models an adjusted EBITA loss of 2 million Danish crowns for Products in 2026, tying that outcome to sales staying below a 3 billion crown breakeven threshold. For the Services division, which is the largest segment at approximately 60% of sales, Barclays observed three consecutive quarters of double-digit order growth and models margins in the 19-20% range.
Analysts also outlined a recovery path into 2027 and 2028, modeling top-line growth of 15% and 20% respectively, contingent on the company securing two large copper project wins.
Relative valuation and exposures
Barclays compared FLSmidth's trading multiples against peers and found it to be cheaper. On the broker's estimates, FLSmidth trades at 12.5 times and 11 times EV/EBITA for 2026 and 2027, respectively, versus 14-16 times and 12-14 times for peers Metso and Weir. The note highlighted that FLSmidth carries roughly 20% gold exposure, the highest among the three companies referenced.
Downside considerations
Barclays identified several risks to its constructive view. Those include potential declines in gold and copper prices, margin pressure as the company transitions back to growth, and competitive threats from Chinese original equipment manufacturers. The broker also highlighted the Products division's dependence on sales rising above the breakeven level to return to profitability.
Overall, the upgrade reflects Barclays' assessment that market share gains in pumps and improving segment dynamics justify a higher valuation, even as near-term momentum and commodity exposures present downside scenarios.