Stock Markets May 29, 2026 06:39 AM

Barclays Flags Greater Downside Risk for Digital IT Services as AI Shifts Spending Patterns

Bank downgrades EPAM and Grid Dynamics to Hold, upgrades Everforth, and warns that subdued near-term demand limits upside for valuations

By Sofia Navarro EPAM GDYN GLOB EFOR

Barclays has taken a more cautious stance on the digital IT services sector, lowering ratings on EPAM Systems and Grid Dynamics to Hold while upgrading Everforth to Hold. The bank cautions that demand carries more downside than upside as clients await next-generation technology and adjust near-term spending, leaving valuations unlikely to re-rate without a clear acceleration in organic growth.

Barclays Flags Greater Downside Risk for Digital IT Services as AI Shifts Spending Patterns
EPAM GDYN GLOB EFOR

Key Points

  • Barclays downgraded EPAM Systems and Grid Dynamics to Hold while upgrading Everforth to Hold, citing increased downside risk in digital IT services.
  • First-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations, but full-year guidance remains back-half weighted, interpreted as reduced near-term client spending.
  • Valuations have de-rated, with the coverage group trading at about 9x and 8x P/E on 2026 and 2027 estimates after a 30% to 35% year-to-date decline; multiples are unlikely to expand without a material acceleration in organic growth.

Barclays reiterated a conservative view on companies that provide digital IT services, downgrading EPAM Systems and Grid Dynamics to Hold and upgrading Everforth to Hold. The bank said the sector faces greater downside risk than upside as artificial intelligence continues to reshape client priorities and spending behavior.

Analyst Surinder Thind told investors that first-quarter results were largely in line with expectations, but that full-year guidance remains back-half weighted. Barclays interprets this guidance profile as an indicator that clients are scaling back near-term projects and delaying spending.

"Clients are waiting for the next generation of technology and its deflationary impacts, which is hindering willingness to spend on new projects," Barclays wrote, adding that the dynamic is fueling growing market concerns around terminal value. The bank said it is "incrementally more negative in the near term" on its digital IT services coverage, which spans EPAM, Grid Dynamics and Globant.

On a company-by-company basis, Barclays said EPAM faces a difficult route back to sustainable double-digit organic revenue growth. For Grid Dynamics, the bank highlighted the companys exposure to the retail sector, which raises the risk that growth may not accelerate as investors had anticipated.

Valuation metrics for the group have repriced noticeably. Barclays noted the coverage group now trades at an average price-to-earnings multiple of 9 times on 2026 estimates and 8 times on 2027 estimates, after a 30% to 35% decline year-to-date. However, the bank cautioned that cheap multiples alone may not be sufficient to draw investor interest. "Multiples are unlikely to expand without a material acceleration in organic growth, the timing of which is uncertain," Barclays wrote.

Separately, Barclays upgraded Everforth to Hold, arguing that the market is pricing in negative long-term growth for the company that the bank views as overly pessimistic.


Barclayss recent note underscores a near-term demand risk for digital IT services as clients await new technology cycles and reassess spending. The combination of back-half weighted guidance, sector-wide valuation compression, and uncertainty about the timing of growth recovery frames the banks more cautious positioning.

Risks

  • Near-term demand risk - Clients delaying or scaling back projects could suppress revenue for digital IT services providers, impacting technology and professional services sectors.
  • Terminal value concerns - Market unease about the long-term cash-flow profile of digital IT services firms as AI reshapes technology adoption may weigh on valuations in the broader tech sector.
  • Sector-specific concentration risk - Companies with greater exposure to retail face the possibility that industry-specific softness will constrain growth acceleration.

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