Barclays has upgraded Boliden AB, the Stockholm-listed miner, to "overweight" from "equal weight" and lifted its one-year price objective to SEK650 from SEK540. The bank said the decision reflects a visible path to earnings recovery tied to two large capacity projects and a valuation that it regards as the cheapest copper exposure in its coverage universe.
The stock was trading at SEK559.40 as of May 27, which Barclays noted implies about a 16.2% upside to the new SEK650 target.
Expansion projects driving the call
Barclays said its upgrade hinges on the value and timing of two planned expansions. The Odda smelter enlargement will add 150,000 tonnes per annum of zinc capacity. At long-term price assumptions, Barclays expects Odda to contribute approximately 150 million - roughly SEK1.60 billion - in annual EBITDA once ramped, escalating to SEK2.70 billion on spot prices. The bank anticipates this contribution to begin in the second quarter of 2026.
The Ronnskar copper tankhouse is the second pillar of the upgrade. The project will add 230,000 tonnes per annum of copper cathode capacity and is forecast to deliver SEK1 billion in annual EBITDA at long-term prices, or SEK1.50 billion at spot prices, commencing in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Combined, Barclays estimates the two projects would lift Boliden's EBITDA by about 12% at long-term prices, or 19% at spot prices, versus the trailing 12-month EBITDA of SEK22.40 billion recorded as of the first quarter of 2026.
Operations, grades and a seismic setback
Barclays pointed to potential volume upside across Boliden's asset base, noting that five of the company's seven mines were operating with 2026 grade guidance below reserve grades. The bank highlighted several examples: Aitik with a 2026 grade guide of 0.18% against a reserve grade of 0.24%, Kevitsa at 0.24% versus a reserve grade of 0.28%, and Somincor copper at 1.7% versus a reserve grade of 1.9%.
However, the bank also flagged an operational disruption early in 2026. A March seismic event at the Garpenberg mine reduced 2026 milled volume guidance to 1.5 million tonnes from the prior 3.7 million tonnes. The company has guided for a recovery to 2.3 million tonnes in 2027. Barclays included the company's sensitivity point that "Every 1Mt change in Garpenberg throughput in 2027 impacts base case EBITDA by 6%."
Valuation and peer comparison
On valuation, Barclays calculated that Boliden's share price implies an embedded copper price of $7,982 per tonne to reach 1x price-to-net present value. That implied copper price sits about 40% below the spot copper price of $13,302.50 per tonne cited by Barclays, and the bank said it is the lowest implied copper price among its coverage universe. Barclays listed implied copper prices for its peers as follows: BHP at $11,885, Glencore at $12,568, First Quantum at $12,918, Anglo American at $16,048 and Antofagasta at $16,890.
Forecasts: EBITDA, multiples, cash flow, leverage and dividends
Barclays set out a multi-year financial projection for Boliden. The bank forecast EBITDA of SEK25.56 billion in 2026, SEK32.03 billion in 2027 and SEK36.92 billion in 2028. It expects EV/EBITDA multiples to decline from 6.7 times in 2026 to 5.2 times in 2027 and 4.3 times in 2028.
Free cash flow is projected to strengthen, rising from SEK6.65 billion in 2026 to SEK16.42 billion in 2028 in Barclays' base case. On leverage, the bank expects net debt-to-equity gearing to fall below Boliden's 20% target during 2027, reaching 14% by December 2027 and moving to net cash in 2028.
Dividend yields under Barclays' base case are estimated at 2.5% for 2026, 4.3% for 2027 and 10.7% for 2028.
Price target derivation
Barclays said its SEK650 target reflects two valuation approaches. It produced an average price target of SEK652 per share using a 1.25 times price-to-NPV multiple, and SEK649 per share using a 6 times 12-month forward EV/EBITDA multiple, which together informed the SEK650 figure used in the upgrade.
Key risks
- Project execution and timing - Barclays listed potential further delays at Odda, Ronnskar or Garpenberg as a primary risk to the outlook.
- Currency exposure - the bank quantified FX sensitivity, noting that a 10% move in USD/SEK would change EBITDA by around 10%.
- Capital expenditure overshoots - Barclays warned that consensus has underestimated Boliden's one-year forward capex guidance by an average of 20% over the past five years, highlighting the risk of capex overruns.
While Barclays' upgrade rests on the twin expansion projects and a deep implied copper valuation, the bank's scenario remains subject to operational recoveries at Garpenberg and disciplined capex and currency movements.