Bank of America published its latest "Traffic Signals" analysis using Placer.ai foot traffic as a near real-time proxy for hospital visits, concluding that Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC) showed a positive April signal while HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) produced a neutral result.
The report relies on Placer.ai data, which Bank of America notes has demonstrated a 90% correlation with hospital volumes over the past 27 quarters. Using that relationship, the firm translated April visitation trends into implied second-quarter volume growth rates and compared those to consensus estimates.
At the company level, the bank finds implied second-quarter growth for Tenet at 3.5%, well above the 1.3% consensus estimate. HCA’s implied growth is placed at 2.1%, which matches the 2.1% consensus. By contrast, Acadia Healthcare Co Inc (NASDAQ:ACHC) and Universal Health Services Inc (NYSE:UHS) show implied second-quarter results below consensus, with Acadia implied at 1.1% versus a 4.6% consensus and UHS implied at 0.0% versus a 2.1% consensus. On average across the sampled operators, the implied second-quarter growth is 1.7% compared with a 2.5% consensus.
Month-to-month dynamics between March and April show divergent trajectories. Measured against first-quarter averages, April traffic accelerated for Tenet with a 290 basis-point increase and for HCA with an 80 basis-point rise. Universal Health Services was effectively in-line with its first-quarter average, while Acadia decelerated by 90 basis points relative to the quarter average.
Bank of America’s April year-over-year comparisons provide additional granularity. HCA’s foot traffic grew 1.3% year-over-year in April, a 30 basis-point acceleration from the 1.0% year-over-year growth recorded in March. Tenet registered 3.8% year-over-year growth in April, accelerating by 210 basis points from March’s 1.7% year-over-year figure.
By contrast, UHS and Acadia showed weaker year-over-year results in April. UHS saw a 7.3% year-over-year decline in April, a 100 basis-point deceleration from March’s negative 6.3% result. Acadia’s foot traffic decreased 0.2% year-over-year in April, a 220 basis-point slowdown from March’s 2.0% growth.
The traffic-read implied outcomes highlight dispersion across hospital operators: Tenet’s April acceleration points to outperformance of consensus in the second quarter, HCA appears to track consensus, and Acadia and UHS currently look to be underperforming consensus expectations. The bank’s use of a high historical correlation between Placer.ai visitation metrics and hospital volumes is central to these implied volume calculations.
Methodology note: The conclusions are derived from Placer.ai foot traffic translated into volume growth using the historical correlation cited by Bank of America. The report presents both month-over-month changes relative to first-quarter averages and year-over-year percentage changes for April versus March.