Bank of America analysts report that activity at U.S. collision repair shops remains below historical levels. Sales at Quality Collision, a multi-site operator, were down roughly 12-14% in April and May, a decline the bank ties to a continued drop in insurance claims and a broader struggle to recover from cyclical lows.
Bank of America held a call that included comments from Matt Robbins, the former chief operating officer of Quality Collision. Quality Collision operates more than 100 locations and generates approximately $425 million in revenue, according to information presented on the call. Robbins described a rise in the average cost of a wreck over the past five years - from about $4,500 to a range near $5,500 to $6,000 - attributing the increase to input and labor inflation as well as greater parts complexity.
Robbins also pointed to higher scrap values for damaged vehicles as a driver of elevated total-loss rates. Those rates have climbed to nearly 24% of claims, he said, which has the effect of reducing the pool of cars that are repaired rather than written off - a factor that contributes to softer repair volumes across the market.
Looking to factors that may reduce accidents over time, Robbins discussed advanced driver assistance systems, or ADAS. While the technology is expected to lower accident frequency eventually, ADAS-enabled vehicles make up only about 30% of registered vehicles when the average age of the U.S. fleet is taken into account. Robbins added that roughly 60% of drivers who have ADAS features have at least one such feature turned off.
He noted that ADAS is most effective at cutting front- and rear-end collisions by roughly 50%, but those collision types comprise only about 5-6% of insurance claims, limiting the immediate impact of ADAS on overall claim counts.
On supplier dynamics in the refinish paint market, Quality Collision selected PPG Industries as its refinish paint provider in January 2026 after a competitive bidding process that included incumbent Akzo Nobel and Axalta Coating Systems. Bank of America estimates that the PPG win will lift PPG’s refinish sales by approximately 2%.
Robbins commented on supplier trade-offs, saying that while Axalta can offer potential cost savings, realizing those savings requires stricter process controls that have caused friction at some shops in the past. He highlighted Sherwin-Williams as a supplier that has materially improved its offering over the prior five-year period, particularly in reporting and analytics tools that help multi-site operators manage costs and productivity. The firm noted Sherwin-Williams is gaining share, including new traction at Caliber driven by a switch away from Akzo Nobel.
Implications
The confluence of fewer insurance claims, rising total-loss rates and gradual ADAS penetration is weighing on repair shop volumes and has implications across the auto repair and coatings supply chains.